Will 100 Become the New 50? Rising Longevity and Its Impact on Society
Paris Tech Review
August 23, 2011
World
In
most places in the world, the death rate keeps falling. Even in the
West, where we keep doing our best to tempt fate by gaining more
weight, the trend continues to be toward longer life. Now some
scientists believe the rapid growth of genetic knowledge may make
further medical breakthroughs even more likely. How much longer might
we live? And how will society cope if we do?
Obesity,
penicillin-resistant infections, AIDS, global warming—when it comes to
public health, there is plenty to be alarmed about. Yet in spite of
everything, death rates are actually falling.
If
this trend continues—and it seems likely that it will, as it’s being
driven by a variety of factors—experts say there may be some difficult
adjustments ahead.
The
Falling Death Rate
For
the 10th year in a row, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) announced
in March that
U.S. mortality rates had fallen. In 2009, the year for which the
center’s most recent statistics are available, mortality fell by 2.9
percent, to 741 per 100,000. Death rates fell for 10 of the 15 leading
causes of death.
Heart
disease declined by 3.7 percent, cancer by 1.1 percent, lower
respiratory diseases by 4.1 percent, and strokes by 4.2 percent.
Accidents/unintentional injuries, Alzheimer’s, and diabetes all fell by
4.1 percent. Influenza and pneumonia declined by 4.7 percent, followed
by septicemia (1.8 percent). Even homicide dropped, by 6.8 percent.
Overall,
the numbers suggest that it’s probably not as late as you think. In
1961, the average baby in the United States could be expected to live
to 67.5. Today, life expectancy at birth is 78.3. This trend is not
peculiar to our time. Duke University demographers Jim Oeppen and James
W. Vaupel pointed out in 2002 that the outer limits of life expectancy
had increased consistently over the prior 160 years. The researchers
noted that in 1845, Sweden topped global life expectancy charts with an
average female life expectancy of 40. Now the country with the
longest-living women is Japan, where women live to a little over 86,
more than double that old record.
In
their paper, published in the journal Science, Oeppen and Vaupel found
that although the lead country changed, life expectancy at the top rose
about 2.5 years per decade. At the same time, they say that all along
the way, demographers have almost always underestimated the possibility
of extending life expectancies.
And
there is still a lot of room for improvement, particularly for
Americans: the United Nations ranks the United States 36th in life
expectancy. Japan is the leading major country, with life expectancy at
birth now 82.6. Iceland, Switzerland, Spain, and France all outpace the
United States. Even residents of the United Kingdom, home of the
deep-fried Mars Bar and the bacon sandwich, are expected to last a year
longer than the typical American, 79.4 years to the American’s 78.3.
What’s
Driving the Advances?
The
CDC says that one-third
of the population in the United States is now obese. Many other
countries are getting fatter, too, even France, where nearly 12 percent
are now classified as obese, compared with 8.7 percent in 1997,
according to a recent survey by Roche, the Swiss pharmaceutical
company. So how is it that we keep getting better at outrunning the
Grim Reaper when we should be waddling into an earlier grave?
Advances
in science are undoubtedly the largest component, but one source of
gains in recent years has been perhaps less technical than
organizational.
For
example, Abdul
I. Barakat, director of research at the Hydrodynamics Laboratory
(LadHyX) and Department of Mechanics in the Ecole Polytechnique of
Palaiseau, France, is working on improvements in stents, the small
metal wideners that help open clogged arteries.
That’s
not unusual. Plenty of medical researchers have done heart-related
research for years. After all, heart disease is one of the leading
causes of death in most developed countries. What might seem more
surprising is that Professor Barakat isn’t a doctor. He’s an engineer.
Not
so long ago, few people without a medical background would have been
involved in such research. Now, it’s much more common. “Over the past
20 years or so, things have really changed dramatically,” Barakat says.
“Doctors, I find now, are very open to involving engineers, physicists,
and basic biologists in the whole enterprise. There’s a huge
interaction that’s going on now, and that’s benefiting everybody.”
Such
collaborations seem promising. One area that Barakat and other
researchers are working in now that most point to as a source of huge
potential is nanotechnology, the emerging ability to manipulate
materials on a molecular and even atomic scale, which creates many new
possibilities for medicine. Doctors may be able to install sensors that
can monitor in real-time what your body is doing, like tiny versions of
the engine sensors in your car. Also looming are small, implantable medical devices
that could correct problems earlier than doctors can now.
Another
potential source of fruitful future collaboration that seems to show
some promise for physical health is psychology. Working with data
culled from the lives of 1,500 people who were tracked from the age of
10 on, two psychology professors from the University of California at
Riverside, Howard S. Friedman and Leslie Martin, found that certain
personality traits seemed to correlate with longevity. Sociability
and conscientiousness are two such traits. Worrying helps, too, the
professors say, particularly among men, as worriers tend to be more
careful with their health.
We
may also have some out-and-out medical breakthroughs ahead,
particularly in gene-related diagnosis and treatment. Although gene
therapy hasn’t lived up to the hype yet, genes are being sequenced
thousands of times faster than they were just a few years ago, thanks
in part to faster computer processing, so the rate of acquisition of
genetic information continues
to increase.
Less
Gold for Those Golden Years?
So
if most of us do end up living longer, what will our golden years look
like? Unfortunately, perhaps, not quite like those investment
advertisements of silver-haired senior citizens out laughing on the
beach.
One
of the risks of these medical advances is that being alive and living
well can be different things. Some fear that a prolonged period of life
in physical pain or dementia could be one of the side effects of the
declining mortality rate. “Although by age 65 almost 9 out of 10 of us
can expect to have some kind of chronic condition, we’re now far more
likely to be living with it than dying of it,” says Olivia S. Mitchell,
a professor of insurance and risk management at Wharton and executive
director of the Pension Research Council.
Longer
life may also entail some hard choices for individuals, families, and
society. As quick early deaths are being replaced by longer, lingering
ones, death is becoming less something that simply happens to you and
more and more a choice.
“The
real issue is whether morbidity will continue to track mortality, that
is, will people continue to be productive and work longer for the same
fraction of their lifetimes,” says Kent Smetters, a professor of
business and public policy at Wharton. “If yes, then I say longevity is
a good thing. But if we are only keeping people alive on the drip then
we will have to ask ourselves if that’s the type of life we want to
live (I would not) and publicly support with high taxes during the
limited working years.”
Even
if much of that time is relatively healthy, it will still lead to
massive changes in society. It may also become unfeasible for people to
retire in their middle 60s, the age Americans now think of as the
normal retirement age.
“Traditional
old-age programs like Social Security and Medicare, already stressed to
the breaking point, will grow much more expensive and will be rendered
unaffordable,” says Mitchell.
In
a way, society would be going back to the future. “At the turn of the
20th century, people never retired—they just worked till they dropped,”
Mitchell says. “Looking ahead, it won’t be economically feasible for
everyone to retire in their early 60’s (as Americans now do) if they
will live to 120. It’s just too costly for individuals, their families,
and society to pay for.”
The
Health-Care Challenge
Health
care costs would likely be another big challenge. As nations age, they
tend to spend more. The United States already spends 16 percent of its
GDP on health care compared with 6.6 percent in 1969, according to the
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Other
OECD countries have also experienced a similar long-run rise in the
percentage of GDP devoted to health care, if at a much more sustainable
level. Japan spent 4.6 percent of its GDP on health care in 1969. Today
it spends 5.9 percent, according to OECD figures. In 1969, France spent
about 6.3 percent. Today, it spends 11.8 percent.
Earlier
interventions in health are also likelier, such as discouraging smoking
or encouraging weight loss, simply because the payoffs to society are
greater if that long old age is a healthy one, Mitchell says.
Longevity
would have many consequences for business, too. For instance, “sales of
traditional ‘life’ insurance (really death insurance) will fall, but
demand for annuities (lifetime payout products) will rise, along with
demand for long-term care coverage,” she predicts.
Much
longer life spans would also require a massive reengineering of our
social systems. “School will not be something that only children
do—instead, we must construct life-long retraining/reskilling to help
workers keep up with changes in the modern economy,” Mitchell says.
Keeping
up with the times is likely to be a challenge for many workers. One
reason is technical obsolescence. In a world of rapid change, the
premium on wisdom declines.
Another
reason is simply prejudice. Even as the corporate world talks about the
virtues of inclusiveness, tolerance for the older worker isn’t
especially high. Major personnel companies such as Manpower keep
forecasting that companies will soon have no choice, demographically,
but to hire additional older workers. For now, however, older workers
do often have a hard time getting hired. In fact, many of today’s
leading companies tend to not have many gray heads anywhere, and
particularly not further up the corporate ladder.
At the top, for
example, C-level tenure is often relatively short. The average chief
marketing officer of a top U.S. consumer brand is out after 42 months,
according to a survey by Spencer Stuart, the human resources
consultancy. A second survey, conducted by Booz & Company, another
consultancy, found that CEOs last around five years.
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