August 18, 2008
New
government statistics reveal an aging population and project a dramatic
surge in the number of older Americans, possibly triggering significant
economic dilemmas.
Between
2000 and 2007, according to the Census Bureau data, the median age
increased in 58 of New York's 62 counties.
The data also show that, as the 65-and-older age group increases, the 15-
to 44-year-old segment is declining in many counties. The number of 15- to
44-year-olds decreased in 42 of the state's 62 counties between 2000 and
2007, according to the census data. In Monroe County, that segment of the
population declined by almost 16,000.
New York is third in the nation in the number of older adults — and that
number will swell as Baby Boomers grow even older, according to
"Aging in New York," a report produced by the New York State
Office for the Aging. More than 3.4 million New Yorkers were age 60 or
older in 2007.
In the report, state officials said a survey showed about three in four
people age 50 and older do not have sufficient resources to pay for
long-term care expenses of $150,000 over three years.
Compounding the problem is the exodus of young people who have been
leaving the state for economic opportunities elsewhere, draining New York
of educated entry-level workers.
The report also noted an "out-migration" trend of early retirees
and "young-elderly" residents who are 55 to 74. They typically
are healthy and financially stable couples who move primarily to southern
and western states. Their departure represents a loss of disposable
income, skilled and experienced community volunteers, and caregivers.
Meanwhile, the state is experiencing "in-migration" of people 80
and older who often are frail, widowed and poor and are moving to New York
to live near relatives and take advantage of the state's generous care
system, according to the report. The long-range forecast is for an
acceleration of the trend.
By 2030, according to the Census Bureau, nearly one in five U.S. residents
will be 65 and older. By 2050, there will be 88.5 million people in the
age group nationwide, more than double the current number of 38.7 million.
The 85 and older population is expected to more than triple, from 5.4
million to 19 million between 2008 and 2050.
The resulting increase in the cost of Medicare and Medicaid government
health insurance programs is "the single most challenging issue we
face over the next generation," said Jim Fatula, chairman of the
department of public administration at the State University College at
Brockport, who teaches a course on health-care policy.
Fatula said Monroe County Executive Maggie Brooks' F.A.I.R. plan to divert
sales tax revenue from public schools to pay for the county's share of
Medicaid may turn out to be just the first in a series of political
battles over tax dollars related to the aging population.
"That's a tipping point. What I think we're going to see increasingly
is a pitched battle over who is going to draw against limited public
resources," Fatula said.
Pamela Whitmore, director of Genesee County's Office for the Aging, said
she has seen an increased demand "for pretty much all programs
offered for older adults in our county."
Her budget has increased about $350,000 during the past five years, from
about $1.15 million to about $1.5 million for 2009.
"Particularly, we see more individuals seeking out help in health and
wellness programs," she said.
In addition to older residents participating in educational programs and
modified exercise sessions, her agency has seen more people in need of
health insurance counseling and in-home services.
"Those kinds of programs are needed for a lot of older adults because
they can't always participate in the standard exercise programs set up for
a younger person," she said.
Corinda Crossdale, director of Monroe County's office for aging and adult
services, said there is a shortage of workers to provide services to the
elderly, especially among nurses and health-aides, and that trend will
continue. "We're not sure how we're going to address that
issue," she said.
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