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Slovakia's population to decrease and age - report. The population of Slovakia will drop in size and age collectively according to a study predicting the demographic development of Slovakia up to the year 2025 released on Wednesday by the Slovak Statistics Office (SSU). "A new study had to be done because of the basic changes that occurred in the reproductive behavior of the population that has occurred recently, especially the drop in new births," SSU chairman Peter Mach said. Last year, the death rate exceeded the birth rate for the first time. The reality, as shown by the census in May of 2001 is worse than the worst case scenarios predicted in 1996. The most pessimistic of the three prognosis in the new study says that the population of Slovakia will drop over the next 25 years by 300,000 people from today's population of 5.4 million in spite of a rise in the birth rate, a rise in the number of immigrants and the growth in life expectancy. Currently, children under the age of 14 make up almost 20 percent of the population but according to the prediction, this will drop to almost 12 percent in 2025. Contrarily, the number of people older than 65 will rise from today's 11.6 percent to almost one-fifth. "Part of the population at a productive age will drop from 63.4 percent to 58.5 percent and in absolute numbers from 3.111 million to 2.979 million," head of demographics for the SSU Michal Tiprak said. "It is quite clear that the proportion of those working to those who are collecting pensions will worsen. Fewer people will have to create the resources," Mach said. The SSU said that this will have to change the structure of public finances. Slovakia is on the cusp of pension reform, however. The current system of concurrent financing where those who work pay for those of pension age is to be replaced by a system of pension funds. The number of immigrants is expected to grow as Slovakia will cease to be a transit country and become a target country. The current 1,000 immigrants a year should rise to about 5,000 a year. The reproductive behavior of the Romany population is that much different from the rest of the population that a special prognosis will be prepared by the end of the year. Mach said, however, that predictions that Romanies will outnumber Slovaks in the near future are unfounded. About 90,000 people said in the census that they are ethnic Romanies, but the actual number is estimated at 360,000 to 380,000. Slovakia does not differ much from the European trend. Eurostat predicts that in 2050, the population of Europe will drop from 376 million to 364 million. The number of children will also drop (by 11 million) as will those of productive age (by 20 percent) while the number of pensioners will double and those over 80 will triple. It is important to note, however, that reproductive behavior is the hardest for statisticians to predict.
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