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Statement by Counsellor Dan Zhang on Economic and Social Sustainability in the Context of Demographic Changes, Specifically Aging
Population,
UN ECOSOC/AARP Event
July 1, 2008
Mr. Chairman,
Dear Colleagues,
I am honored to participate in today’s event as panelist. First of all, allow me to thank DESA and AARP for organizing this discussion on economic and social sustainability in relation to demographic changes including aging population. Let me share with you information about China since I really believe it is a case in point because it explains a lot about how population trend affects economic and social development in every aspect.
China’s demographical statistics shows that the total population as of the end of 2007 is 1 billion and 321 million, up 15.94million from the previous year.
Among them, 153 million are over 60 years old, accounting for 11.6 percent of the total population. The demographic situation of China has the following features: firstly, the size of the population is huge and will maintain its strong growth momentum with an annual net increase of 8-10 million for the next ten years. Secondly, the educational level of the population is still comparatively low, with about 85 million people aged 15 and above are illiterate. Thirdly, population ageing emerged too early and too rapidly under conditions of relative socio-economic underdevelopment. It takes most of the developed countries like US and Sweden 50-60 years for their older population over 65 years to double. It will take China only 27 years. According to UN, the world population is projected to increase to about 9 billion by 2050. By that time, more than 400 million people in China which accounts for roughly one third of the total population, will be 60 years old and above. The fourth feature is the continuous and accelerated urbanization and migration.
As you all know, population development has intrinsic and intricate relations with the three pillars of sustainable development, namely economic growth, social equity and protection of the environment. In other words, the demographic changes in China pose grave threat to poverty reduction efforts, gravely strain social protection schemes and pose enormous constraint on the environment and natural resources.
On poverty reduction, after 30 years of continous economic growth, people living under one dollar a day have been reduced by 270 million, but China is still a lower middle income country with per capita income just reaching $2000, ranking beyond N.100 in the world. We still face the daunting task of lifting the remaining 120 million people out of poverty. The rising oil and food prices in the world market made the attainment of this goal more difficult. Despite the fact that 95 percent of our food consumption are met by domestic production, greater risk of inflation deriving from the rising oil and food prices in the world market disproportionately affected people living in poverty.
The rapidly ageing population is an another factor adversely affecting economic sustainability since will undercut economic growth and investment. On one hand, it means declining labor forces especially when the baby boomer generation of 60s and 70s enter into old age. Research shows the ratio of the workforce to the retired was 20:1 in the early 1980s. It is expected to reach 2.5:1 by 2020. On the other hand, increasing demand for old age social and medical care is envisaged and social facilities and services including age-friendly housing, transportation will be needed to adapt to the ageing society.
On environmental sustainability, we believe that land and resources conservation are pivotal to protect ecosystem and prevent degradation and resource depletion. Currently, our per capita possession of arable land is only one third of world average. Per capita possession of freshwater is one quarter of world average. China has to feed 21 percent of world population with only 9 percent of world arable land. Against such grave constraint and scarce natural endowment, we have to find more innovative ways and develop technologies to improve our energy efficiency and agricultural productivity and land management. We are looking forward to more international cooperation in this respect.
Mr. Chairman,
Friends and colleagues,
The challenges posed by the demographic changes in China are not unique, they are similar to the problems faced by many developed or developing countries, but the magnitude of the challenges is unprecedented and formidable.
For one thing, it has entered an aged society like many developed counties.
One the other hand, it is undergoing rapid urbanization and has 24 million people every year looking for jobs, making the goal to attain full and productive employment and decent work for all as a foundation for sustainable development all the more challenging. Every tiny problem in China magnified by its 1.3 billion population, becomes a huge problem.
To tackle such complex problems, priority must be given to the designing and implementation of integrated policies taking account three pillars of sustainable development committed at the UN Conference on Environment and Development in 1992 and three pillars of social development made at the Copenhagen Summit for Social Development in 1995. This is the only way to avoid conflict of policies and ensure optimal coordination and delivering. In our case, our latest national development plan (2006-2010) is a good example. The plan has 22 targets, 16 of which focus on population, environment and resources, social development and public health, with only two targets dealing with economic growth. This clearly demonstrates an integrated, holistic and coordinated policy formula and switch of government policy priority to social and environmental spheres.
To reduce disparity and achieve social equity, efforts are made to expand social protection network. The government is now going all out to expand social protection in the rural areas and to those working in informal sector in urban areas. For example, old-age social insurance system has been established in 1900 counties in 31 provinces, benefiting more than 54 million farmers. At the same time, the new rural cooperative medical care system which was piloted in 2003 has been put in full play and covers 86% of counties in rural areas.
On environmental protection, energy and land resources management, we are fully aware that it is unsustainable to replicate the lifestyle of the developed countries. Our efforts are to build an energy-efficient and energy-saving society, reducing pollution and combating land degradation and desertification. China has scaled up its efforts to achieve the target of reducing energy consumption for per unit GDP by 20% by the year 2010 through enhanced monitoring measures, accountability for implementation and disciplinary measures against officials for non-performance.
To transform an aged society into a positive development force, we need to combat stereotype and discrimination. Older populations are assets in stead of burdens to society. Other than grandparenting which is the main focus of most Chinese older persons, older persons can engage in more productive and meaningful work after their retirement. The values, wisdom and experience of older persons in workplace need to be recognized and extending working age is one of the options that governments have in order to maintain sustainability.
Older population is also a fast-growing market for products and services that meet their special needs and lifestyle. Old age universities are also becoming more popular in China with now 1.5 million older persons attending.
Faced with the rapidly ageing population, the traditional way of providing care for the older persons are also undergoing transformation compatible to the changes of family structure in China which are becoming smaller and more nuclear. According to a survey disclosed by China National Committee on Ageing (CNCA) recently, 85 percent of the elderly people surveyed in six provinces said they preferred home-based care to nursing homes. Taking into consideration the increasing demand for care for older persons in the coming decades and to cope with neglect and abuse arising from changes in family structures, a nationwide homecare system will be set up to ensure that care services be established for the elderly in every community of every city by 2010. For this to happen, collaboration and participation of civil society and private sector are highly critical. Now, an increasing number of community-based groups and volunteers have joined in the efforts to support and care for the elderly people. In Beijing alone, there are 300,000 volunteers which include primary school, high school and university students, that have established one-on-one relationship with needy older persons and provide regular services ranging from washing clothes, cleaning houses and playing games with seniors.
In conclusion, to address the demographic changes and create a society for all, we need to renew our commitment to effectively implement global consensus on sustainable development.
Thank you for your attention.
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