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2030 Forecast: Mostly Gray
By Haya El Nasser, USA TODAY
April 20, 2005
Bill Billow, 89, tries the saddle of a Harley-Davidson motorcycle
to the amusement Trudy Feingold, 89, at a Florida senior center.
By J. Albert Diaz, Miami Herald/AP
The elderly population in every state will grow faster than the total population, and seniors will outnumber school-age children in 10 states in the next 25 years, population projections released today by the Census Bureau indicate.
No state had more elderly than children in 2000.
The Census Bureau predicts that 26 states will double their populations of people older than 65 by 2030, when the oldest members of the baby boom generation hit their 80s.
Florida, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Wyoming, North Dakota, Delaware, New Mexico, Montana, Maine and West Virginia will have fewer children than elderly. Only the District of Columbia will grow younger.
The growth in the 65-and-older population will be about 3½ times the growth of the nation as a whole, the Census Bureau predicts.
The boom in the number of elderly portends dramatic shifts in political dynamics as competition intensifies for tax dollars to finance programs for the old and the young. More than one in four residents will be 65 and older in six states by 2030: Florida, Wyoming, Maine, New Mexico, Montana and North Dakota.
"One out of four residents is going to be politically oriented toward services for the elderly and is not going to give a hoot about financing for school districts," says Peter Morrison, demographer at RAND Corp., a think tank in Santa Monica, Calif. "If I were a legislator in Maine, I'd say we have a big change coming."
In 2000, 24% of Maine's residents were younger than 18, and 14% were 65 and older. By 2030, the numbers will flip: 18% will be school-age, and 27% will be elderly.
There will be different shades of gray in different corners of the USA. Fast-growing states in the South and West will be more youthful as they retain younger baby boomers in their 60s and 70s and lure immigrants and younger families from other states.
"Arizona and Nevada will have the lowest share of 'needy' elderly and the highest share of 'yuppie' elderly," says William Frey, demographer at the Brookings Institution, a think tank in Washington, D.C.
But states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan and Ohio will face increasing financial burdens of paying Medicaid and other health care costs for the oldest seniors. These states are losing younger baby boomers to the Sun Belt and keeping large numbers of people who already are 65 and older.
"As you reach the end of life - the last year or last two years - the use of medical care is very intense," says Richard Cauchi, health program director at the National Conference of State Legislatures. "If the 85-plus (population) can be projected accurately, that certainly is where the major dollar impacts will be felt."
Fast-growing states such as Nevada, whose population is expected to more than double by 2030, will see significant jumps in their elderly populations, but they will be balanced by increases in every age group. By contrast, North Dakota will experience declines in all age groups except 65 and older.
The concentration of the young, the working-age and active retirees in some states and the very old in others "is what really sharply divides the country," Frey says. "The yuppie elderly (younger boomers) are showing the greatest gains in Western and Southwestern states. They will still be healthy and in good financial shape, so this is a good thing for these states."
The projections, the first the Census Bureau has done for states in eight years, are based on immigration and migration patterns and rates of births and deaths. If the trends continue until 2030:
.The South and West will gain more influence at the expense of the Midwest and Northeast. The share of Americans living in those regions will increase from 58% in 2000 to 65% in 2030. The share in the Midwest and Northeast will decline from 42% to 35%.
.Michigan and New Jersey will be bumped off the list of the 10 most populous states by North Carolina and Arizona.
.California, Texas and Florida each will gain more than 12 million residents and together will account for 46% of the nation's growth. Such growth will pressure natural resources and public works, Morrison says.
"There will be a continuing challenge in the rapidly growing areas to meet the needs of a population that is favoring places where water isn't," Morrison says. "We're starting to see these problems emerging in the Southwest, and these projections say that it's going to intensify."
.Florida, now the fourth most populous state, will edge past New York into third place by 2011. California and Texas will remain the top two.
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