Question: Why are we concerned about the US population reaching 300 million?

First it’s important to view this development from two perspectives, global and domestic. The global population is projected to increase from its current 6.5 billion to a projected 9.1 billion in 2050, with virtually all of this growth occurring in the less developed countries. Global population growth is a significant problem. The US contribution to global growth is relatively small, but the concern is that the US with only 5% of the world’s population accounts for roughly one fourth of the world’s energy and fossil fuel consumption. So the global concern is that growth in the US leaves a larger ecological footprint due to our consumption.

From a domestic perspective, it’s important to look at the history of this population growth, the sources of the growth, trends, and some of the challenges.
The US is the only industrialized country experiencing population growth.

History of Growth

-In October, 2006 the US will become the third country in the world in addition to China and India to reach 300 million.
-It took us 139 years to reach our first 100 million, then 52 more years to reach 200 million ( in 1967) and only 39 more years to reach 300 million (2006). The population is projected to reach 400 million in 37 more years (2043).
-Viewed another way, our population has doubled since 1950 and increased by one third since 1967.

Sources of Growth

-Natural increase (births minus deaths) accounts for 60% of our growth and immigration accounts for 40% of our growth.
-Legal immigration is estimated at around 1 million per year. The precise level of illegal immigration is unknown but estimates range from 200,000 to 500,000 per year.
-The largest share of legal immigrants (42%) comes from Latin America, with 32% from Asia, 16% from Europe, and the balance from Canada, Africa, and other countries.
-In 2005 the U.S. had an estimated 38.4 million immigrants (over 20% of world’s total and up from 15% in 1990).
-Once here, migrants on average have more children than other residents, and this increases their proportion of the total population. The fertility rate of the Hispanic population (2.72 births per woman) for example, is 38% higher than the white non-Hispanic (1.83) and 32% higher than the black non-Hispanic (2.05).
-Total US fertility is around replacement levels (2.04 children), and immigration is considered to be the major growth factor in future growth.
-If one projects growth from descendants of 1970 residents to 2050, our population would be 250 million rather the projected 420 million. The difference in the projection (170 million) is the result of immigrants since 1970 and their descendants.

Trends

-The US Population is projected to reach 420 million by 2050.
-With no migration (which is totally unrealistic) population is projected to be 340 million by 2050.
-Population is projected to age with the percent over age 65 increasing from 12% in 2005 to 21% in 2050, while the percent of the population under 18 changes slightly from 25% to 24% and the working age population (18-64) decreases from 63% to 56%.
-By 2030 half of all children under 18 will be members of a racial or ethnic minority (up from 41% in 2000).
-By 2050 half of the total US population will be member of a racial or ethnic minority (up from 31% in 2000).

Challenges

-Environment: Growth will create stress on availability of land, water, energy and clean air. Growth will also likely contribute to the increase in greenhouse gases and global warming.
-Infrastructure: Growth will create stress/vulnerability for roads, power, and transportation systems. Our current infrastructure is not designed for a population of 420 million.
-Growth will create pressures on our education and health care systems and challenge current system capacities.
-Growth may create assimilation challenges as population composition changes.

Concerns

-Polls have indicated a wide divergence of opinion between the U.S. public and leadership regarding desirable levels of legal immigration with roughly 55% of the public believing current legal immigration levels should be decreased in contrast to 18% of the nation’s leadership.
-Recent polls indicate that 65% of voters feel that a national increase of population by one third in the next 50 years will make their quality of life worse.
-Educational concerns: Hispanics have higher high school drop out rates, and all minorities (except Asians) are under-represented in science and technology educational achievement.
-Poverty: In 2005, 18 percent of children under 18 lived in poverty (compared with 10% of persons over 65); and among the young, racial and ethnic minorities are more likely to live in poverty (34% of blacks and 28% of Hispanics versus 14% of whites).
-From 1994 to 2001, the rate of unplanned pregnancies increased around 30% for those women below the federal poverty line ($16,000 per year for a family of 3), whereas for women comfortably above the poverty line, the rate of unplanned pregnancies fell by 20% during the same period.
Policy Questions
-How will the US afford the necessary infrastructure investments?
-How can we improve the educational and health care access for racial and ethnic minorities?
-How will we finance needed educational and health care improvements for racial and ethnic minorities? If costs are passed on to each household, the gap between the rich and the poor will likely widen.
-Without improvements in education, poverty levels and health care for children, the quality of the future work force may suffer.
-What should the U.S. policy be on future population growth?

Conclusions

-The future growth of the US population depends on fertility and immigration levels and they both make a difference. Researchers have projected the following hypothetical scenarios:

• If the total fertility rate (TFR or number of children per woman in her reproductive life) is 1.85 and annual immigration is zero, population in 2050 is projected to be 320 million.
• If the TFR is 2.1 and annual immigration is 1.1 million, the population in 2050 is projected to be 420 million.
• If the TFR is 2.35 and annual immigration is 1.1 million, the population in 2050 is projected to be 460 million.
• If the TFR is 2.35 and annual immigration is 1.5 million, the population in 2050 is projected to be almost 500 million.
-While one can argue that immigration has historically been a source of national strength and revitalization, at current levels of migration one must also look at the demographic, social and economic consequences.
-At current trends, without major additional investments and improvements in infrastructure, education and health care, there is the risk that the disparity will grow between the rich and the poor and quality of life may decline.
-The U.S. needs better policy consensus on population growth and the role of immigration. In 1972 the Commission on Population Growth and the American Future recommended limiting the total number of immigrants to 400,000 annually. It is reasonable to ask the question: what level of immigration is ideal?
-Racial and ethnic sensitivities impede open political discourse on this subject.
-As currently structured, a number of sectors of US business (e.g., agriculture, construction, food processing) that represent a significant segment of the US economy rely on migrant workers. Employers must be brought into the solution of illegal immigration.
-The process of a fair and equitable U.S. immigration policy is complicated by the value of remittances immigrants send back to their countries of origin. For example, remittances to Mexico total $23 billion annually, second only to petroleum as a source of revenue. Hence, the economic impact to Mexico is significant. Worldwide, remittances from migrants are estimated to exceed total overseas development assistance.
-Until population growth from the sending countries is more in line with economic growth, migration pressures will continue.

Interesting Facts

-Low skilled migration has the greatest impact on reducing poverty in the states of origin but may reduce wages, increase unemployment, increase the dependency ratios and social welfare costs in the recipient countries.
-High skilled migration is often resisted by countries of origin due to the “brain drain.”
-It is estimated by Joseph Chamie, Research Director of Center for Migration Studies) that 54% of “Americans ever lived” are living today:
• In 1776 the population of the US was 2,527,450
• The total number of births since 1776 is 483,465,018
• The total number if immigrants since 1776 is 72,105,369
• The total number of Americans who ever lived is 558,097,837
• The number of Americans living in 2006 is 300,000,000 (54% of 558,097,837)
• Total number of Americans deceased since 1776 is 258,097,000
- Migration is a worldwide concern. International migration and development is the subject of a special May 16, 2006 report to the Secretary General of the United Nations and a special conference on the subject is proposed for later this year.
- Women and International Migration are the subjects of the 2006 UNFPA State of the World Population Report.
- For a summary of the report refer to www.populationinstitute.org and see our current (September – October 2006) issue of POPLINE (also available in French and Spanish).
 

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