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Congressional Budget Battle Centers on Older Americans
WASHINGTON, Jan. 20 — The political war now escalating over the budget will revolve, in part, around the interests and apprehensions of one extraordinarily powerful group, strategists in both parties agree: older Americans. Both the political calendar and the issue agenda are pushing the parties toward a rough debate about who has the elderly's best interests at heart. This year's critical Congressional elections will play out amid the increasing strains of an aging society, a sluggish economy, a resurgence in health care costs and a disappearing budget surplus. In the often arcane struggle over budget priorities, older Americans have a direct stake in many of the decisions made by the administration and Congress this year — on prescription drug benefits, the fate of the 10-year tax cut and, looking down the road, the pace and nature of any Social Security overhaul. Medicare spending is a particularly delicate issue, with the Bush administration seeking to squeeze billions from Medicare by limiting payments to providers even as a federal advisory panel is urging the government to raise them. Moreover, some strategists say that concern over retirement security, a buzzword in the political world these days, may grow as a result of the collapse of Enron, the Houston energy trading company. Many Enron workers lost much of their retirement savings because they were so heavily invested in company stock, underscoring the vulnerability many Americans felt about their 401(k)'s in a no-longer-roaring stock market. "I think even before Enron, people were looking at their statements and saying, `Uh-oh, things are not as rosy as they used to be,' " said Linda DiVall, a Republican pollster. This debate will be fueled by the sheer political power of the elderly. Older Americans vote at much higher rates than younger age groups in midterm elections, and analysts say their allegiance is increasingly up for grabs. After years of reliably tilting Democratic in Congressional races, the 60-and-older vote was carried by the Republicans in 1994, 1996 and 1998, then swung back to the Democrats in 2000. Mark Gersh, an expert on demographics for the Democrats, says the party is dependent on the retiree vote to win back the House "more than ever," given the nature of some of the newer, more competitive Congressional districts. Representative Thomas M. Davis III, chairman of the Republicans' Congressional campaign committee, says there is "no question that seniors have been trending our way." The Democrats "will try to bring up Social Security, scare them and get that vote back," Mr. Davis said. Democrats say the reappearance of the deficit, and the use of the Social Security surplus for other budget purposes, has created another potential line of attack. In a new poll for Emily's List, the Democratic women's fund-raising group, nearly 8 in 10 older women said such a use of the Social Security surplus was a "very serious problem." Terry McAuliffe, chairman of the Democratic National Committee, said Friday that Democrats needed to beat back the argument, advanced by the administration, that the deficit was caused by spending to fight terrorism. Referring to President Bush, Mr. McAuliffe declared, "He was hitting the Social Security trust fund in the summer." The basic structure of Social Security will also factor in the campaign debate. While no legislation is expected to move this year on restructuring Social Security to create private accounts, Democrats assert that Mr. Bush has clearly committed himself to the idea and sooner or later will push it. "We need to seize on every opportunity to brand them as the ones who want to mess with Social Security," Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster, said Friday. Representative Sherrod Brown, an Ohio Democrat who focuses on issues of interest to the elderly, argues that his party simply needs to present the facts. "What's always been high on the Republican agenda is even higher now that they have a Republican president — privatizing Social Security and privatizing Medicare," Mr. Brown said. He argued that the administration's drive to get more private health plans involved in Medicare, along with its Social Security ideas, reflected the Republican Party's fundamental aversion to big government programs, even when those programs work. Republicans are dismissive of these charges, arguing that the Democrats' case is so patently political — and has been repeated so many times, dating back to the classic 1982 bumper sticker "Save Social Security, Vote Democratic" — that it has lost its power. "They'll use Social Security, but that doesn't scare me in my boots right now," Mr. Davis said. Still, Congressional Republicans were distinctly uneasy about even the possibility of Mr. Bush's pushing his Social Security proposals in a midterm election year. Glen Bolger, a Republican pollster for Congressional candidates, is one of many strategists in his party who argue that it is important for Mr. Bush to express his sensitivity and commitment to elderly issues — particularly prescription drugs — in his State of the Union address next week. Ms. DiVall said: "What the president has going for him is that people trust him. They know he's not going to play fast and loose with their retirement security." The elderly vote often accounts for a fourth of the vote nationwide in off- year elections — more in states like Pennsylvania and Florida — and Ms. Lake said it could be particularly high this year. Ms. DiVall said older women "will vote at an 80 percent clip" because "they follow government and they're concerned about retirement security," while 18- to 24- year-olds might be voting at a 15 percent turnout rate. The retiree vote has also gained political power because it is behaving more like a swing vote. In recent years, with the passing of the generation that came of age during the New Deal and formed lasting Democratic identities, Republicans have made important inroads. That was particularly true in 1998, when the Democrats lost the 60-and-over vote by 10 percentage points, in large part as a result of the values issues. In the end, advocates and analysts say, what makes many retirees so dangerous to underestimate is that they read, go to town meetings, watch C-Span and generally pay attention. Even in a budget debate with significant eye-glazing potential, some of them they will be watching, strategists say. Mr. Bolger said he begins every campaign strategy discussion the same way, "What is our message and how are we going to communicate with seniors?"
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