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Traffic death rates are at a record low. Crackdowns on drunk and road-rage drivers, as well as better roads and safer cars, have made a difference. But lurking among those favorable trends is one that alarms experts: a spike in deadly accidents among the rapidly expanding population of drivers 70 and older. Within about 15 years, by one economist's estimate, there will be more elderly drivers involved in crash fatalities than there are drunken-driving deaths (15,935) today. 

While there are rules and rituals for a 16-year-old to get a driver's license, there is little guidance for older Americans on when to quit driving. Yet only teenagers rival drivers 75 and older for piling up traffic fatalities per miles driven. In the past year, a dozen states have considered laws to restrict older drivers. And it's not just a legislative battle but a family drama, as spouses and children plead with dangerous elderly drivers to give up their car keys.

Getting unsafe older drivers off the road will be one of the trickiest problems facing a graying society. For one thing, there's little consensus on which older drivers to target. Any driver older than 70, 80, or 90? Studies show that most people after about age 70 find it harder to make a twisting over-the-shoulder glance before shifting lanes, that their eyes recover more slowly from glare, and that their reaction time slows. But as the elderly population balloons, political clashes over limits on driving are certain to increase.

Several recent headline-grabbing tragedies have prompted calls to get tough, however. In July, 87-year-old Marie Wyman crashed her car into a restaurant in Winslow, Maine, sending panicked patrons diving out of the way; 28 had minor injuries. There was a more disastrous outcome in June when Albertinah Mkhize, 71, made a wildly wide turn through a San Francisco crosswalk: a 10-month-old boy being pushed in a stroller by his mother was struck and killed. Just hours before, the driver had flunked a road test and lost her license.
Such horror stories have led state lawmakers to propose restrictions on older drivers. But groups that represent the elderly aggressively oppose age-based testing, saying it would penalize drivers with good safety records. Florida, the state with the highest proportion of older drivers, is proof of such political perils. State legislator Ed Healey thinks it's wrong that a Floridian his age, 75, can drive until 93 without ever stepping into a motor-vehicle office, under a law that allows drivers with no accidents to renew a license by mail for 18 years. But Healey is giving up on a bill to test older drivers, which failed when legislators feared angering senior voters. A California bill to require drivers age 75 and older to take regular behind-the-wheel road tests fizzled last month. Still, such tests have limits, as they are designed to determine whether a 16-year-old knows the rules of the road. And testing every older driver would cost millions more than most states have been willing to spend.

Confidentiality. One model may be Missouri. A new law there allows police, doctors, and family members to confidentially report an "impaired driver," who is then required to take a road test. By not targeting older drivers, the law won support of the AARP and other groups.

Complicating any search for a solution is the stubborn fact that though older drivers have a large number of fatalities per miles driven, they have fewer accidents than any other group on a per capita basis. So, insurance companies give special senior discounts. Older drivers tend to show better judgment on the road. For example, they are rarely arrested for drunken driving. And there is even evidence that senior drivers are better at regulating themselves than any government agency could be. They tend to avoid highways and limit trips to familiar and nearby places like the grocery store. They eschew nighttime driving, sticking to "senior driver hours" between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m. Drivers over age 65 average a low 4,500 miles a year.

Perhaps the biggest question hanging over efforts to restrict older drivers is deceptively simple: Without their cars, how will they get around? The elderly who stop driving tend to become isolated and even depressed. Those who don't drive leave the house–even to take a walk–fewer than three times a week, according to an AARP study. Deborah Perkins, a nurse practitioner who tests drivers for a Richmond, Va., hospital, says when she tells people it's time to give up their license, "It's like telling them they have a terminal illness."
Typical is Roy Leahy, who is 81 and unable to read even the bank statements that arrive at his home in New Port Richey, Fla. Although he stopped driving three years ago, his 1991 Dodge Spirit sits in his garage. When he drove, he'd pick up his wife every day from her nursing home and take her to the VFW hall for a drink. Now he sees her about once a month when friends can take him. "I can't get out much less, unless I was in a coffin," says Leahy. Recently, a social worker, worried that he was suicidal over the loss of his freedom, persuaded Leahy, a former World War II paratrooper, to sell the pistol he had taken from a retreating Nazi soldier. 

In a nation in love with the automobile, driving is more than a simple matter of mobility; it's a sign of competence and independence, particularly for men. Indeed, 71 percent of men 85 and older hold a driver's license, compared with 31 percent of women. One daughter speaks with exasperation of her 84-year-old father, whose license was revoked in California. The man kept driving and thought he'd been caught after getting hit by another car. But the other driver was in his 80s, too, and the two men settled the matter themselves.
When the elderly stop driving, most depend upon family and friends for transportation, with public transit accounting for just 3 percent of their trips. That includes even door-to-door van services set up for the elderly. Maartje Lewis came up with a novel solution to dealing with her inability to drive. Blind at age 86, she recently moved back to the Netherlands, the public-transit-rich nation she left 50 years ago. "You cannot live without wheels," Lewis says of Florida. "That's all there is to it."

Yet lost in the headlines about dangerous older drivers are some good, and surprising, findings. Driving skills, once lost, can often be regained. Exercise and physical therapy help the frail; cataract surgery may aid those with visual losses. Perhaps most stunning is new evidence that the brain can be retrained to improve driving skills. Consider 77-year-old H. F. "Mac" McCue, who stopped driving after two strokes and the amputation of his left leg below the knee. McCue was fiercely determined to get back behind the wheel of hisLincoln Continental. So, for six weeks this spring, his wife, Alma, drove him more than four hours round trip each Wednesday to a retraining program. While the former Navy pilot stared at the center of a computer monitor, images of a car or truck flashed elsewhere at the edges of his peripheral vision. By repeating the exercise at faster speeds and farther distances, McCue markedly improved hisperception. On the road, says University of Alabama-Birminghamresearcher Karlene Ball, that translates into an ability to perceive a turning car amid the visual clutter of other vehicles. It's not clear whether the exercises rewired McCue's brain or improved his perception through practice, but Ball's studies show the results last about 18 months. 

Quiz me. Even if driving can be improved, few older people are willing to try. Although scores of seniors have been tested, only McCue and one other man have agreed to be retrained by Getting in Gear in St. Petersburg, Fla. Most who come know they are good drivers and are looking for certification. Elsie Emslie, at 89, sees her yearly test as a matter of personal responsibility. Yet many of the elderly fear calling attention to deteriorating driving technique, says Sue Samson, who runs Getting in Gear. Eventually, most quit driving on their own. The result, says Samson, is that she sees more people who stop driving too soon rather than driving beyond when they should.

There are other advances for older drivers. States are making road signage larger. Auto companies are also responding. For the new model 2000 Cadillac DeVilles, General Motors will offer "infrared" night vision to make it easier to see distant objects. But some experts worry this could give false confidence to some seniors to take to the roads again.

It may be easy for baby boomers to make fun of elderly drivers now. But the real older-driver menace will come with the graying of 76 million boomers, who are more likely to live in suburban areas with sparse public transit. Further, unlike older women today, who drive one third as many miles as men their age, younger women are just as likely to drive.

To create "safe mobility for life" will require a change in societal thinking, akin to how drunken driving has gone from "a Dean Martin joke" to a stigma, says Ricardo Martinez, outgoing administrator of the National Highway Transportation Safety Administration. For older drivers, says Martinez, that will mean regular testing of driving ability "just like they are screened for colon cancer." And when they can no longer drive safely, it will be necessary to get the elderly off the road by providing alternative transportation so they can remain independent.