If 2005 was a bad one for retail next year will be only marginally better, say forecasters. But marketers can take heart that one group seems unaffected by rising petrol prices, fears of rate rises and the flat property market - the baby boomers.

Forecasters predict a gradual rise in retail sales will peak at about 5.5 per cent this time next year - less than half the peak achieved in late 2003 and early last year. But Charlie Nelson of Foreseechange said the 6.7 million adults who own their homes, mostly in the 55- to 64-year-old age group - are at the peak of their spending.

"They are spending double that of other groups," Mr Nelson told the CEASA conference.

"In the last five years the amount that households headed by 55- to 64-year-olds spent on discretionary items such as travel, clothes and eating out grew by 61 per cent."

That is now $741 a week per household and $353 a head.
"They are completely unaffected," he said. "These are people who are benefiting from high interest rates."

Elsewhere the picture is less rosy. According to Foreseechange's survey of 400 adults, home buyers' willingness and ability to spend is lower than since early last year. The number of "profligate" spenders is at a record low - 12.9 per cent in October compared to 20.3 per cent two years ago. The number of "reluctant" spenders is also at a record high, 32.6 per cent.

Mr Nelson, however, added that having only 6 per cent more people pessimistic about the future than three years ago was "encouraging".