Working Till 80? 

By Laure Belot, Le Monde 

Interview with the demographer and biologist Shripad Tuljapurkar.

Life expectancy was 25 to 40 years at the beginning of the nineteenth century. It now approaches 80 years. What demographic profile will our societies have in 2050? 

Life expectancy in industrialized countries will be around 90 years in 2050, if nothing is done but extend present tendencies. In Japan and Sweden, it will even reach 95 years. But it's altogether possible that it will be still higher, for we have become very effective at treating the illnesses that come with age. 

If present birth statistics remain stable, the proportion of those over 65 years old will double in the next 15 years as the baby boomer generation reaches its sixties. After that, that proportion will continue to grow: In the middle of the twenty-first century, there will be on average 3 people over 65 for 4 people between 20 and 65 years old. A proportion three times higher than at present. It's this ratio, called the "dependency rate," that is at the center of today's debates over retirement pensions. 

The United Kingdom wants to change the retirement age to 68 years old. Up until when will we have to work? 

One thing is certain: the old concept of a "golden age," of achieving retirement and then having nothing to fear, will soon be finished. The cost of pensions to societies is growing faster and faster. Globally, people will have to work longer. 

The present debate is still timid. People talk about setting the retirement age at 67, 68, or 69 years rather than at 65. In the United States, for example, the retirement age will go to 67 in five years. But the real question is already: by how much more must we increase it? If we really want to pay pensions in industrialized countries without increasing their cost to society, it will be necessary to fix the retirement age at 75 in twenty-five or thirty years. In some countries, as a function of life expectancy, retirement at 80 years could even be contemplated in 2060. Now, everything depends on the model of society that politicians will choose. 

What are the possible choices? 

Governments can decide to reduce the amounts of pensions. But the unheard-of demographic situation to come forces us to reflect on what it means to "be retired." The real problem is that governments have trouble projecting themselves beyond their own political lifetime. 

If you retire in 2050 at 65, what will you do with the thirty years you have left to live! Some people are ill, but the healthier majority will want to stay active economically, perhaps by practicing totally different professions. That's what's happening already in the United States where part-time work is growing. The government may encourage this type of practice by paying out a part of the pension. In the future, we shall perhaps create a new style of life in which we don't work 100% of the time before we rest. A more flexible system with periods of alternation: work ten years, stop for one or two, start back again ... 

You've studied the G-7 countries, China, India ... What lessons have you drawn from that? 

Sweden, for example, will have to increase its retirement age rather soon, since its "dependency rate" is practically double that of the United States (2 seniors for 5 active persons, versus 1 to 5). That country will have to take the lead and fix a retirement age that others won't reach until ten or twenty years later. Italy, where the birthrate is very low, will also have to bring the retirement age up to 70 very soon if the country wants to have its accounts in order. In France or the United States, where the birthrate is higher, things may go a little more slowly. 

What governments presently have interesting initiatives? 

Several countries try to motivate young people to save more. But this population is difficult to convince, hence the appearance in the United States and United Kingdom of systems for automatic withholding from salaries. 

In Sweden, instead of saying, when you retire, here's what we're going to pay you every month, each individual now receives an account statement detailing the sum that has been paid up until now for retirement. It's not just an accounting subtlety. It makes the operation and limitations of the system very clear ... and it avoids having politicians hide the problem. It's a real advance that exists only in the Scandinavian countries. Others still hope the problem will disappear. 

What problems will confront the two future giants, China and India? 

These two countries will have 300 million additional inhabitants in the next thirty to forty years! Life expectancy is increasing there very rapidly, as it did in Japan during the 1950s. For the moment, neither of them proposes any pension system, except for those designed for officials. Systems have been tested, but the cost will be gigantic: In twenty years, India and China will have to devote 4 to 5% of their GDP growth just to paying that additional cost. Moreover, China has just devised a creative system. Since culturally sons must support the elderly, if you have a son, you receive less of a pension than if you don't. And if you have two sons, you receive still less. 

According to you, this demographic development risks exacerbating inequalities between rich countries and the others ... 

The treatments that allow for life extension are expensive. Rich countries, China or India, will be able to pay for them. But what will the others do - not only the poor countries, but the poor in rich countries? 

In the United States, the number of people who have no access to medical care is much higher than it is in Europe, and these people literally "pay," by dying sooner: the poorest 10% of the population has a life expectancy 6 years shorter than the rest of the American population. The same phenomenon characterizes comparisons between countries: between "poor" and "rich," life expectancies differ ten, fifteen, or even thirty or forty years. The gap should grow significantly. The risk is that in coming decades a permanent "underclass" will be created. 

Statistics 
Life Expectancy at Birth: 
The global average is 67 years (2005 figures) according to the Population Reference Bureau. That figure is 70 years for western European countries; 78 years in North America; 72 years in China; 62 years in India; 52 years in Africa. 

Development: 
For the last fifty years, life expectancy in industrialized countries has increased by a year every five years. 
Read Life Span: Evolutionary, Ecological and Demographic Perspectives, under the direction of James R. Carey and Shripad Tuljapurkar (Population Council, 2003).