An elderly woman looks before risking a walk across Christchurch's busy Manchester Street. A lower birth rate and higher life expectancy means that in 23 years one in five Cantabrians will be over 65 and the median age will be 43, compared with a median age of 41 nationwide.

An "age quake" will hit Canterbury 20 years ahead of the rest of New Zealand.
A lower birth rate and higher life expectancy means that in 23 years one in five Cantabrians will be over 65 and the median age will be 43, compared with a median age of 41 nationwide.

The figures emerged at the Age Quake Forum hosted by the Christchurch City Council yesterday.

Social welfare campaigners, statisticians and advocates told the forum an ageing population would have a big impact on housing, public transport, healthcare, streetscapes and the workforce in Canterbury over the next two decades.

Statistics New Zealand principal demographer Mansoor Khawaja said Canterbury would experience an ageing population earlier than the rest of the country.

"Canterbury will have less lead-in time to prepare age care and other social services to improve the quality of life for elderly residents," he said.
"The national figure is behind Canterbury rather than ahead of it.

"Christchurch's over-65 population will double in the next 23 years. This will have a significant impact on many aspects of our community and economy.

Little is known about what happens to a society when its age structure changes so radically."

The fertility rate in Canterbury was 1.75 per woman in 2006, compared with the national rate of 1.99. The median age in Canterbury in 2006 was 37.6, compared with 35.8 nationwide.

Age Concern Canterbury chief executive Andrew Dickerson said long-term planning needed to start now to prepare for massive demographic change.
"We do still have time to plan for this change, but we need to start planning now," he said. "It is important that we do this planning, but it is even more important that we take a longer-term view and do some longer-term visioning of what our community might look like in, say, 2050."

Council community services general manager Michael Aitken said the ageing population could influence housing plans in Christchurch.

Council urban designer Hugh Nicholson told the forum that an ageing population would mean subtle changes to the streetscape, such as more public seating and more time for pedestrians to cross the road at traffic lights.
The rising elderly population in Canterbury will foreshadow a major demographic change across New Zealand.

The median age in New Zealand will rise to 45 by 2051, compared with 26 in 1966, according to Statistics New Zealand. New Zealand residents over 65 will make up 24 per cent of the population by 2051, compared with 12% in 2006.

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