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Forget Blame; Fix the System
Newsday.com
March 25, 2004
The federal program that pays for medical care for the elderly is running up expenses faster than ever - so much so that Medicare's trustees now expect the part that pays for hospital care to run short of money by 2019, seven years earlier than forecast last year.
And that's only the beginning of Medicare's fiscal problems: Its cost will explode as the baby boom generation retires and as even more costly new medical technology enables boomers to live even longer lives. That will impose increasing burdens on retirees, who pay premiums for some of their care, and taxpayers, who pick up the rest.
In a presidential election year like this one, that dilemma is likely to be exploited - and distorted - by the candidates for political gain. Republicans and Democrats are already concocting ways to blame each other for the predicament. But the growing problem was entirely predictable and it must be addressed seriously, not just to make debating points.
And finding ways to more effectively manage the growth in the cost of medical care in general is the best remedy - if an elusive one - not only for Medicare users but for everyone.
According to the Medicare trustees' annual report, it is mostly rising costs of care per patient - not expanding patient rosters - that account for the system's deteriorating condition: That's partly because of legislation Congress approved last year - including new prescription drug benefits and other changes - but also because of lower-than- expected payroll-tax revenue and higher-than-expected expenses.
And that's even before the influx of baby boomers into Medicare begins. As that wave hits, it is expected gradually to boost the cost of Medicare from about 2.7 percent of the nation's total output today to five times that much.
That will leave little room for other federal spending. So the sooner Washington gets serious about remedies, the less onerous the changes will be.
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