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Elderly could Face Shortfall
By Todd Hartman, Rocky Mountain News
October 13, 2004
The cost of providing services to a booming population of metro-area seniors will more than double by 2020, according to an assessment by the Denver Regional Council of Governments to be released today.
Driving that need for more funding will be a projected doubling of the population age 60 or older in the region in the next 15 years, the study said.
"We just want people to know these costs aren't going to go away; in fact, they're going to increase," said Sue Bozinovski, director of aging services for
DRCOG.
"We have to come up with more funding, somehow."
Adults age 60 or older now make up 291,603 of the people in Denver and surrounding counties.
By 2020, that number is expected to rise to 575,175, bringing with it the need for more home-delivered meals, medical transport and in-home services such as assistance with bathing and cleaning.
All told, the DRCOG study expects funding needs to rise 154 percent by 2020, with the biggest hike tied to the cost of providing meals to seniors at homes or group settings. Costs for that service are expected to rise from $4 million a year currently to $10 million.
Transportation costs are expected to increase from $1.6 million a year to $4 million.
Though DRCOG has been conducting such studies roughly every four years since 1978, this is the first time the agency has developed estimates of projected funding needs.
Colorado already falls far short in providing services to seniors, according to Jon Looney, state director for the AARP, and he's skeptical that things will improve even as the elderly population rises.
"Colorado is in the bottom five in the entire country, in terms of amount of money we appropriate for aging services," Looney said.
He cited the ongoing state budget crisis, with the latest projections showing that the legislature will have to cut $263 million in 2005.
"It does not look like things are going to be getting any better in terms of money available for senior services in the foreseeable future," Looney said.
The study also found that it saves Colorado money to help seniors remain in their homes - even when taxpayers have to provide transportation and meals.
Cost of basic in-home services totals $2,582 monthly, while the average monthly cost of nursing home care in Colorado is $3,770, according to
DRCOG.
Furthermore, federal money covers 85 cents on the dollar for in-home services, while it leaves the state to cover 50 cents on the dollar for nursing home costs.
"Even if we delay for a little while somebody going into a nursing home, it still has cost savings for the state," Bozinovski said.
She added that most seniors prefer to stay in their homes.
For the first time, the DRCOG study included a survey of baby boomers, the first wave of whom will begin turning 60 in 2006 and will fuel the metro area's rise in older adults and seniors.
One key finding
Baby boomers were more concerned about potential problems down the road than current seniors.
"They aren't sure their health care coverage will be available, they aren't sure they're going to have a pension, they're not sure Social Security is going to be there," Bozinovski said.
Money played a central role in their worries.
The report found that the average boomer in the region expects to retire at 66, even though half of them said they didn't believe they were financially prepared for retirement.
Growing older in the metro area
Some facts about older adults age 60 and above in the Denver area. It comes from the Denver Regional Council of Governments' latest assessment of this growing population.
. State population: Older adults account for 12 percent of the region's population. This is a somewhat lower concentration of older adults than the nation as a whole, with 16 percent.
. County by county numbers: Denver County accounts for most of the older adults in the metro area, with 30 percent, followed by Jefferson County with 27 percent, Arapahoe County with 22 percent and Adams County with 22 percent.
. The "young-old": The so-called "young-old" - older adults ages 60 to 74 - account for nearly two-thirds of the older adult population in the Denver region.
. Men vs. women: For all older adults in the metro area, women outnumber men 57 percent to 43 percent.
. The family unit: Nearly two-thirds (64 percent) of metro-area older adults live in family households with either a spouse or some other relative.
. Health factors: Men ages 60 to 74 tend to report fewer problems than women, including physical health and loneliness. The oldest males (age 85 and over) report fewer problems in general.
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