Three in four seniors have come to a decision about whether or not to sign up for the new Medicare drug benefit, but a quarter are still uncertain.

The latest Kaiser Family Foundation tracking poll finds that 45% of seniors say they have enrolled or plan to enroll in a drug plan, 29% say they do not intend to enroll in a drug plan, and another 23% say they are uncertain. The majority of those who do not plan to enroll say they have another program or plan that helps pay for their prescriptions. 

Though more seniors are enrolling in a drug plan each month, the tracking poll also shows that seniors have become less enthusiastic about the new Medicare drug benefit over the past six months. Seniors are now almost twice as likely to say they view the benefit unfavorably (45%) as favorably (23%). That reflects a shift since August, when seniors' positive views peaked and they were as likely to view the benefit favorably (32%) as unfavorably (32%). 

"A substantial number of beneficiaries are already enrolled, but a lot turns on what those who are on the fence decide to do between now and May 15," said Foundation President and CEO Drew E. Altman, Ph.D. "If they stay out for now, some could face financial penalties down the road if they later change their mind." 

Seniors' views of the law seem to be influenced both by their experiences during the marketing and enrollment period and by media coverage. Nearly half of seniors (46%) who have an impression about the drug benefit say their views have been shaped by their personal experiences or what they learned from friends and family. Just over a third (35%) say their views have been shaped primarily by what they've seen and heard through television, radio and newspapers. 

The poll continues to highlight the limits of the Internet and the need for a multifaceted outreach effort. One in seven seniors (14%) say either that they have used the government's Web site, Medicare.gov, to compare drug plans (6%) or that they had a friend or family member do so on their behalf (8%). Overall, less than three in 10 seniors (28%) say that they have "ever" gone online for any purpose. 

"The plan finder at Medicare.gov is the best way to compare Medicare drug plans, but relatively few beneficiaries and their helpers are using it to date," said Vice President Mollyann Brodie, Ph.D., who directs the Foundation's public opinion research efforts. 

The nationally representative tracking poll - the 11th in a series that comprises three large surveys and eight smaller tracking polls such as this one - was conducted among 262 seniors from Feb. 2 to Feb. 7, just more than a month after the Jan. 1 start date for the Medicare drug plan. During this early period, there were reports from the states and in the media of beneficiaries being unable to fill their prescriptions or being overcharged, particularly among those who previously had Medicaid drug coverage and had been enrolled automatically in a private Medicare plan as required under the Medicare drug law. 


Other key findings from the survey include: 


. government's toll-free line for getting information about the Medicare program, including the new drug benefit. Another 6% say that a family member or friend has done so on their behalf. 

. benefit will affect them personally, reflecting a steady increase since August, when just a third (33%) reported that level of understanding. 

. (27%) or a doctor (26%) about the Medicare drug benefit. Overall, six in 10 say that they would trust their pharmacist (60%) or their doctor (61%) "a lot" in understanding the new Medicare drug benefit. 

. available to them, two out of three seniors (66%) say the number "makes it confusing and difficult to pick the best plan," while 21% say it "is helpful and provides an opportunity to find the best plan." In October, 73% of seniors said the number "makes it confusing and difficult," while 22% said "it is helpful." 



METHODOLOGY 

This tracking poll on the Medicare prescription drug benefit is based on interviews with 262 adults ages 65 and older who were interviewed as part of the Kaiser Family Foundation Health Poll Report Survey. The survey was conducted and analyzed by researchers at the Kaiser Family Foundation. In total, a nationally representative random sample of 1,203 adults ages 18 and older was contacted by telephone by Princeton Survey Research Associates International between February 2 and February 7, 2006. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. The margin of sampling error for 
respondents ages 65 and older is plus or minus 7 percentage points. For results based on smaller subsets of respondents, the margin of sampling error is higher. Note that sampling error is only one of many potential sources of error in this or any other public opinion poll.