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Analysis: Medicare to Be Election Issue

By David Espo, the Washington Post

 
December 1, 2003

WASHINGTON - When it comes to the Medicare bill awaiting President Bush's signature, Republicans are eager to cash in their political winnings at the polls in 2004.

Democrats want the cards shuffled and dealt again, quickly, for fear of losing a topic that has worked to their advantage for a generation.

Either way, the landmark legislation will be an issue next year.

While Bush said it means Medicare "will be modern and it will be strong," his Democratic rivals all opposed it. Some sought additional political mileage by joining a futile, last-minute filibuster aimed at killing the bill in the Senate.

Like all complex legislation, this one was the result of dozens of compromises, large and small, as well as shifting tactics.

As president, Bush decreed that any drug benefit should apply broadly. "All seniors should have the choice of a health care plan that provides prescription drugs," he said in last winter's State of the Union address.

That effectively eclipsed the view of many Republicans that only low-income older Americans and those with extraordinarily high drug costs should be covered.

Not all Republicans reconciled to that. "Once you made it universal, I think it was the beginning of the end," Sen. Trent Lott, R-Miss., said Sunday on ABC's "This Week," referring to the additional costs involved.

Additionally, 25 House conservatives opposed the measure rather than support creation of a huge new government benefit program.

At the same time, under pressure from Senate Democrats, Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill., and other key Republicans, the White House quickly abandoned efforts to limit the new drug benefit to those people willing to give up traditional Medicare.

Hastert, who has spent much of his career working on health care issues, let it be known he viewed that proposal as inhumane, and the White House let it slip from its list of priorities.

Among Democrats, Massachusetts Sen. Edward M. Kennedy made a key decision in June that helped trigger strong bipartisan support for an earlier version of the bill. "A major breakthrough," he called it at the time.

Provoking anger among fellow Democrats, he agreed to a fundamental Republican goal: creation of a vast new role for private health plans under the government-run program. He also accepted the $400 billion overall ceiling on spending that Republicans imposed.

But months later, Republicans deliberately kept Kennedy at arms' length when they negotiated a final House-Senate compromise. Instead, they turned to the AARP - long viewed as a Democratic ally in Medicare wars - and Democratic Sens. John Breaux of Louisiana and Max Baucus of Montana .

That kept the final Senate vote relatively close, at 54-44, and the rhetoric heated.

But from the GOP perspective, Kennedy's last-minute, futile bid to block the bill and the harsh attacks that he, Senate Democratic leader Tom Daschle and others leveled at the AARP were powerful signs of political success.

The final Senate roll call also underscored the extent to which Democratic unity had fractured on an issue that the party has long used successfully against Republicans. In the end, 11 of the Senate's 48 Democrats voted in favor of the bill.

In the House, the GOP leadership worried all year about preventing mass defections among their own conservatives and little or nothing about enlisting bipartisan support. That made it easier for Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi's attempt to make the legislation a clear-cut issue for 2004. In the end, only 16 of 205 House Democrats defected.

"This bill is wrong and when the public sees what's in this bill, I think it's going to be a negative to have voted for it," she said in an interview a few days before the final House vote.

In the Senate, Daschle said much the same thing, then went a step further. Shortly after the legislation was passed, he introduced a bill to repeal portions of it and to legalize the importation of prescription drugs from Canada and Western Europe , where they often are cheaper than in the United States .

"This debate is not over, it's just beginning," he said, and the Democratic presidential hopefuls agreed.

Among the five lawmakers running for the party nomination, Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina and Reps. Dick Gephardt of Missouri and Dennis Kucinich of Ohio arranged their schedules to be present to vote against the measure. Sens. John Kerry of Massachusetts and Joe Lieberman of Connecticut returned to the Capitol to argue against it. Their point made, they skipped the final roll was called. The other Democratic contenders also oppose the measure.

For his part, though, Bush is already celebrating, with a formal signing ceremony yet to come.

"They used to call Medicare 'Mediscare' for people in the political process," he said, virtually taunting Democrats over an issue they once called their own.

"Some said Medicare reform can never be done. For the sake of our seniors, we got something done," he said.

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