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US rise in
Alzheimer's 'may ruin health care'
By
Jeremy Laurance
The
Independent, 19 August 2003 A cataclysmic
warning that the US health system could be overwhelmed by the growth in
the number of elderly Americans suffering from Alzheimer's disease was
made by researchers yesterday. New estimates
suggest that the numbers affected by the degenerative disease, which
requires round-the-clock care, will rise to 13.2 million by about 2050 -
three times the 4.5 million people affected today. The increase is
much higher than previous estimates made over a decade ago by the same
researchers from the Rush Institute for Healthy Ageing in Chicago and
others. The reason is the rapid ageing of the US population. The oldest
age group - over 85s - is rising much faster than expected and by 2030
nearly half those affected will be over 85. Sheldon Goldberg,
president of the Alzheimer's Association, which funded the study, said:
"If left unchecked it is no exaggeration to say that Alzheimer's
disease will destroy the healthcare system and bankrupt Medicare and
Medicaid." Only by pouring
more money into research could a "looming public health
disaster" be averted, he said. While Britain
will also see a startling increase in rates of the disease over the same
period, the rise will be less pronounced than in the US because Europe has
an older population than the US, according to Harry Cayton, chief
executive of the Alzheimer's Disease Society in the UK. He said:
"There is absolutely no doubt that the number of people with
Alzheimer's and other dementias is going to grow very dramatically." More than half
the money spent by the NHS is already taken up by the problems of old age.
But the rise in UK cases between now and 2050 was likely to be 150 per
cent, Mr Cayton said. "I wouldn't envisage that our healthcare system
would collapse." The study,
published in Archives of Neurology, says the incidence of the
disease in the US will rise 27 per cent by 2020; 70 per cent by 2030 - and
soar 300 per cent by 2050. Economic studies
have shown that by 2010, Medicare spending on Alzheimer's will rise to
$49.1bn (£31bn) - 54 per cent up on 2000 - and Medicaid spending will
rise to $33bn (£21bn), or 80 per cent higher. Mr Goldberg said:
"Our choice is clearer than ever - either increase funding for
research to fend off this looming health disaster, or sit back and wait
for it to overwhelm the healthcare system." Copyright
© 2002 Global Action on Aging
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