A record number of elderly people in Scotland are at risk of dying as a result of the cold this winter, it was claimed yesterday, with meteorologists predicting it will be the worst in nearly a decade. 

Despite the recent mild winters, the number of "excess deaths" caused by low temperatures has been rising. Some 1,700 people over the age of 80 died as a result of the cold in the winter of 2003/04, a 46 per cent rise on the figure in 2001/02. 

The figures were highlighted yesterday as the Met Office re- iterated warnings that this winter was likely to be significantly colder than in previous years. 

Fears were raised that these factors, combined with rising fuel bills, could lead to a major rise in cold-related deaths, particularly among the elderly. 

Across the UK, about 36,000 people are thought to die as a result of the cold during winter, and for every degree below the UK winter average temperature of 3.7 degrees a further 8,000 people die. 

Ewen McCallum, the Met's chief meteorologist, said government ministers, business leaders and fuel companies should prepare for the cold snap. 

"The important thing is to give an 'amber alert' to government and to business, to the energy industry, to health, to be cautious and perhaps plan forward," he said. 

"What we are finding is admissions to hospital increase dramatically and mortality actually goes up dramatically in cold weather, so the vulnerable and the elderly certainly are at risk. 

"But we don't want to cause a scare. This is really just forward planning." 

The Scottish Nationalists' social justice spokeswoman, Christine Grahame, said she was "deeply concerned" that a prolonged period of cold weather combined with rising fuel costs would lead to more deaths. 

Lindsay Scott, of Help the Aged in Scotland, said this was "highly possible". 

Average winter temperatures in Scotland are 2.7C, but last year and the year before the average temperature was 4 and 3.2 degrees respectively. During the last cold winter, in 1995/96, the average temperature was 1.8 degrees. 

A Met Office statement said: "The last eight winters have been relatively mild and perhaps have given the impression that these are 'normal'. 

"The balance of probability is for a winter colder than those experienced since 1995/96." 

A spokesman for the Scottish Executive said: "We are concerned by any rise in excess winter deaths. We are working very hard on a number of fronts to support elderly and other vulnerable people."