Warning of Future Crisis in Care for Elderly

A government-commissioned study has revealed a looming multi-million pound shortfall in funding for care services, which will have to cope with a soaring number of elderly residents in Yorkshire , unless changes are made to the way they operate.

The country's ageing population has prompted the Department of Health to commission the report, which warned that local authorities are facing a watershed if they are to cope with mounting pressures on their care services.

York Council, North Yorkshire County Council and Leeds Council were chosen to take part in a project to develop a long-term vision for the commissioning of services after the Government admitted a radical shake-up of care provision was of paramount importance.
The problems have been compounded in North Yorkshire as the county's health services have been plunged into a financial crisis as front-line care is cut back to meet Government targets.

The newly-formed North Yorkshire and York Primary Care Trust, which is responsible for services including GP and dental provision is due to meet today to discuss its financial predicament, had faced a deficit of £24m in 2006-07.

But officials now believe the financial crisis has significantly worsened and it could run up debts of £45m unless action is taken.

Coun Sue Galloway, York Council executive member for adult social services, said: "We are facing some extremely tough decisions throughout not just the region but nationally if the level of care provision is to remain adequate.

"If the level of care services continued as they are at the moment, we simply would not be able to cope with the number of elderly people predicted to be living in 2020. The worrying thing is that not everyone is aware of how critical the situation is, and people in their 50s should really be making plans now to ensure they have enough funds to pay for care themselves in later life."

The problems have been amplified in North Yorkshire and York , which have emerged as centres for retirement as people take advantage of the county's good quality of life.
Official figures released in the study, which was conducted by the three Yorkshire councils with the Institute of Public Care at Oxford Brookes University , have revealed the true extent of the rapidly increasing number of elderly in the region.

In North Yorkshire, it is estimated there will be 50 per cent more people aged over the age of 65 living in the county by 2020 – representing a quarter of the county's total population. In 2001, the over-65s represented only 18 per cent.

It is estimated that the demands for care services from the elderly in North Yorkshire will cost the county council an additional £43m every year by 2020 if no action is taken and provision remains at the current level.

In York , the care of the elderly is expected to cost an extra £7m annually by 2020 – an 43 per cent increase on the current level of expenditure if no contingency plans are put in place.

North Yorkshire County Council has also analysed the impact of other care services, such as those for mental health and physical disabilities, to ensure its budgets can cope throughout the coming years.

A series of proposals have been drawn up including reshaping contracts and targeting care in the community more effectively.

Leeds Council is due to consider its own findings, which are understood to have focused on mental health among the elderly, in the next few months.