Dementia Timebomb 'Will Hit 1.2 Million'

By Laura Donnelly, Daily Telegraph

March 24, 2008

United Kingdom

More than a million people will suffer from dementia within 20 years, Government forecasts show.

The number of patients diagnosed with diseases such as Alzheimer's will rise by 70 per cent to more than 1.2 million by 2028.

Experts warn that there will be almost twice as many sufferers living in nursing homes. However, psychiatrists and charities say that not enough is being spent on research, treatment and care. One professor said he was "ashamed" by the state of the services on offer.

Dementia robs victims of their identities as memory, speech and understanding are lost.

Drugs such as Aricept, which slow the appearance of the symptoms of Alzheimer's, are restricted by the NHS because they cost £2.50 a day, despite being widely available in other countries.

A report by the Department of Health's Horizon Scanning Unit, seen by The Sunday Telegraph, sets out the timebomb facing Britain.

The number of people aged over 85 will have doubled by 2028, the research says. One in four will develop dementia. The number between 65 and 74 will also increase by 40 per cent and those aged 75 to 84 will rise by 50 per cent. The Alzheimer's Society charity said that the document's findings would mean an extra 500,000 people living with dementia. There are 700,000 at present. The cost of long-term care for dementia patients will more than triple to £17 billion.

Prof David Wilkinson, a psychiatric consultant, described the figures as "staggering". He called for urgent action to increase funding and research for Alzheimer's, the most common cause of dementia.

At present, £11 is spent on research into dementia for every sufferer in this country, compared with £289 for every cancer victim.

Prof Wilkinson, of Southampton University, said he was "ashamed" by the "appalling" treatment and services provided to many patients. In 2005, the NHS rationing body, the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence, ruled that a group of drugs which slow the progress of Alzheimer's should only be given to patients in the "moderate" stage of the disease because of the £2.50 a day cost.

Prof Wilkinson said: "If someone has cancer you don't wait until it has spread until you start treating it. This is a lethal degenerative condition and we should be tackling it from the start." He also said the care for those at the later stages of the disease was inadequate. "We are warehousing these people in nursing homes, that's what we are doing with them. It's appalling."

In November a report by the Alzheimer's Society said that many patients suffered physical and mental neglect. Many residents were left alone in their bedrooms, while –others were shouted at, or left unwashed, the investigation said.

Neil Hunt, the chief executive of the society, said the predictions showed the urgent need for a significant increase in services and research. "We know that delaying the onset of dementia by five years would halve the number of deaths from Alzheimer's. If we are to defeat dementia it is vital we invest in more research," he said.

Earlier this month, Terry Pratchett, the science fiction author, who has been diagnosed with early onset Alzheimer's, pledged half a million pounds for research.

A potential vaccine, which destroys the plaque deposits in the brain thought to lead to some symptoms of Alzheimer's, has been tested. Although it is being adapted because trials showed some safety risks, research presented at a conference earlier this month showed that the vaccine had been successful in limiting the development of Alzheimer's.

Prof Clive Ballard, the Alzheimer's Society's research director, said: "We think this could be a major breakthrough."

Forecasts by Prof Martin Knapp, from the London School of Economics, predict that the number with dementia living in care homes will rise by 88 per cent by 2031, when close to 400,000 would be living in long-stay institutions.

The cost of long-term care will more than triple, reaching £17 billion, he said. At present, about one third of the £5.4 billion burden is paid by families.

Heather Roberts, a teacher, feared that she was developing dementia. After being told there would be a six-month wait to see a neurologist, she went private, but it was not until several years later that she was diagnosed with Alzheimer's aged 50.

Mrs Roberts, who is married with two children, said: "In some ways I am lucky, I was put on the drug Aricept before Nice ruled against it for those in the early stages."

•Alzheimer's Society helpline: 0845 3000336.

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