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Some Chinese demographers have predicted China's population should peak at around 1.6 billion by the middle of the next century, then it will begin to decline.                                                                                             

The demographers claim there will be little worry about population explosions by then; however, they foresee the arrival of a new, and potentially serious, population problem - rapid growth of a generally unproductive elderly population.                                                             

Data from the Population Institute at Renmin University in Beijing indicates there will be 126 million people over the age of 60 by the end of the year 2000. These people will account for roughly 10 per cent of the country's population.                                                                                                The data further indicates the growth rate of the aged population in China will soar, from its 9.6 per cent rate in 1997 to a rate of 10.7 per cent in 2005.                                                                                                      

In other words, one-third of the population will be over 60 by the year 2050.                                                                                                

These numbers would be problematic in any country, but they are especially so in a country whose traditions are rooted in Confucianism, with its emphasis on filialty and ancestor worship. In the past, children would live with and care for their aging parents without a second thought, the result being extended families living under a single roof.                                    

But things have changed in recent decades. Modern realities have resulted in the fading out of extended family households in favour of small nuclear families, as more and more people, both elderly and young, have begun to prefer independent lives.                                                                       

Many older people remarry after their partners pass away, once a taboo. Those who remarry often prefer to live with their new spouse separately from the children of their former wife or husband.                                      

In addition, the one-child policy has placed a heavy burden on the singular shoulders of children forced to take care of parents and sometimes grandparents.                                                                                           

A recent survey conducted by the policy research department of the China National Committee on Ageing indicates that 13.9 per cent of residents above 50 intend to move into houses for the elderly in the future, and 4.7 per cent said they would like to move in immediately.                      

Although these percentages do not seem significant now, they represent a definite increase, said Cheng Yong, a member of the China National Committee on Ageing.