The Roanoke Times 

Last week, Bush signaled he was leaning toward a big communal risk as well: heavy-duty borrowing to pay the $1 trillion to $2 trillion in transition costs. So much risk. So little reason. 

Since the Great Depression, Social Security has been one of Americans' very few financial certainties. Recessions, layoffs, illness and market crashes could - and often did - wipe out individuals' retirement savings, but they could always count on the bare minimum of a Social Security check to keep body and soul together. 

Revenue shortfalls are ahead for Social Security, by about 2018, but relatively minor tax and benefit adjustments could preserve that sure thing largely intact. The $87,000 cap on income subject to the payroll tax could be increased. New state and federal hires could be brought into the system. With people in their 60s, 70s and 80s getting more in benefits than they paid in taxes, the estate tax could be restored and the money used to shore up Social Security. 

The president, however, seems intent on going the riskiest route. 

Payroll taxes will not be increased, he said Thursday, leaving capital markets - already concerned about staggering U.S. deficits - his only apparent option for financing privatization. Economists disagree on the effect of so much additional debt, but respected voices say inflation and interest rates could climb while U.S. creditworthiness could sink. 

That could put the nation's economy at risk, on top of the risk posed to individuals by private investment accounts. Their guaranteed Social Security benefits would decline, and their investment decisions would determine whether they make up or exceed the difference in the market. 

The market is a gamble, and gambling always has winners and losers. Many astute or well-advised Americans would fare better, and the financial industry would reap a windfall of investment fees. But many other Americans - the unlucky, the unwise, the financially naive, the victimized - would fare worse. 

Those people are the people for whom Social Security was created. Without the traditional guarantee, which now averages only $960 a month, they could face an impoverished retirement. 

The risk to them is great. It is also unnecessary.