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How Much Will You Need to Retire? It Helps to Plan


By: Fred Brock
The New York Times, March 17, 2002

Mutualfund companies, big brokerage firms and the financial advisers who rely on their data work very hard to convince future retirees that they will need 70 to 80 percent of their pre-retirement income to live comfortably once they quit working.

Other advisers contend that these estimates are self-serving, intended to attract customers and their money. They say that if your home is paid for, you need much less to retire than you might have been led to believe — especially if you are willing to move to a less expensive part of the country. These advisers say you should weigh expenses, not income, when calculating needs. They see 40 to 60 percent of pre-retirement income as more accurately in line with postretirement expenses.

Whatever the case, a nationwide survey of 1,200 people last year by several economic researchers indicates two things about retirement expectations: many people are mistaken about how much it will cost to retire, and mistakes can be alleviated by planning.

"Our survey of people who are zero to five years from retirement showed that most had only a foggy picture of how much it would cost," said Andrew Caplin, a co-author of the survey and a professor of economics and co-director of the Center for Experimental Social Science at New York University. "A typical response put retirement expenses somewhere between 75 and 100 percent of pre-retirement expenses." Interestingly, that range is in line with the highly publicized projections from mutual fund and brokerage concerns that refer to income, not expenses.

The survey, based on data from TIAA- CREF, the big academic pension fund, also showed that of those who actually were retired, 74.9 percent found retirement about as expensive as they had expected; 15.3 percent found it more expensive and 9.8 percent found it less.

The survey did not address the issue of moving to a different region after retirement, though Mr. Caplin agreed that relocating can often make for less-expensive living. Most people probably want to stay put, he said, "but I suspect that a lot of people may be more flexible about moving than they think when the time comes."

As for financial planning, the survey found that among those who did little or none of it, 24 percent found retirement more expensive than they had expected, while 9 percent found it less. But those who did a "great deal" of planning generally found themselves closer to the target: 12.5 percent said retirement was more expensive, while 11.5 percent said it was less.

Three recent books on retirement can help put you in the planners' category: "Retire in Style: 50 Affordable Places Across America" (Next Decade, $22.95), by Warren R. Bland; "The Complete Idiot's Guide to Retiring Early" (Alpha, $19.95), by Dee Lee and Jim Flewelling; and "Retirement on a Shoestring" (Fourth Edition, Globe Pequot Press, $15.95), by John Howells.

"Retire in Style" provides economic and lifestyle information on the author's choices of good retirement spots. He gives numerical rankings to his selections, with the highest score being 60. The scores are based on a number of categories, including quality of life, cost of living, health care, transportation and cultural activities.

Boulder, Colo., finished at the top of the list, with 52 points. It scores especially high on quality of life and recreational activities. But it has only a "fair" rating for cost of living, which is about 20 percent above the national average; housing costs are about 60 percent above average.

The other cities in the top 12, all of which scored at least 48 points, are Portland, Ore.; Asheville, N.C.; Austin, Tex.; San Antonio; Chapel Hill, N.C.; Colorado Springs; Eugene, Ore.; Fayetteville, Ark.; Fort Collins, Colo.; Gainesville, Fla.; and Medford/ Ashland, Ore.

"The Complete Idiot's Guide to Retiring Early" provides financial guidance for plotting an escape from the rat race. The book is loaded with easy-to-understand tables and charts, as well as helpful fill-in-the-blank worksheets. It's a breeze to follow and does a good job of explaining financial terms and jargon.

"Retirement on a Shoestring" offers strategies for making your retirement money go as far as possible. It is written for people who don't have plump pensions or 401(k) plans and may have to live largely on Social Security. Down-to-earth advice is given for cutting expenses and looking beyond "best places" lists. It covers topics from medical insurance and expenses to the pros and cons of retiring to less expensive areas overseas. 


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