Aging, centralized population the future for Indiana

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Aging, centralized population the future for Indiana
Monroe County projected to grow by 5.7 percent by 2005

By Jordan Seeder

The Indiana Digital Student, July 21, 2003

Between the years 2000 and 2005, Monroe County is projected to add 6,899 people to its population, which is an increase of 5.7 percent. Monroe County is projected to be one of the fastest-growing counties in the state of Indiana over the next five years, and the population for the state of Indiana also is expected to increase steadily over the next 40 years. By the year 2030, the population of Indiana will top 7 million.

Every 10 years since 1790, the U.S. government has taken a census of the nation's population. The most recent census was taken in 2000. The state of Indiana, with the help of the Indiana Business Research Center, used the information from this census to make the population projections.

There is a disturbing trend evident in the projections concerning the future population of Indiana. Over the next 20 years, Indiana's population -- in the age range of 25-54 years -- is expected to decrease dramatically. This is the age group that is most active in the work force and is most responsible for generating capital.

"A drop in the number of workers in this age range would almost certainly reduce the workforce available to produce goods and services that drive the state's economy," IBRC demographer John Besl said.

With a possible shortage of younger workers in the future, it might be necessary for the older population -- age 50-64 -- to stay more productive in the workplace.

Morton J. Marcus, executive director of the IBRC, said he believes education is the key to avoiding further economic recession and unemployment in the future. He said unemployment is caused by an inability to transition to new jobs, and it is important for today's youth to learn skills they can use in the workplace of the future.

Monroe County will not suffer from these problems as much as other counties. In fact, the county is one of the few counties outside of Indianapolis that will gain population in the 25-54 year old age group during the next 20 years.

By the year 2020, Monroe County will be one of only three counties with a median age under 30 years old. This is due in large part to the student population on the IU-Bloomington campus.

While the number of people in the 25-54 age group is dropping, the population of Hoosiers age 65 and older will be increasing greatly. From 2000 to 2040, the number of people 65 and older is expected to nearly double, from 753,000 to 1.48 million. With a senior population so large, issues such as social security benefits and senior housing could become very important in the next 20 years.

The report also found Indiana's population is becoming more consolidated. One-third of the state's growth over the next 40 years will come primarily from the Indianapolis county of Marion and its suburb, Hamilton County. This trend of consolidation could lead to a lack of economic resources in the more rural Indiana counties and overcrowding in the more urban ones.

How these projections will affect development in Bloomington and Monroe County is still unclear. IU and all of Monroe County is growing. With this growth, more developments and expansion -- such as the ongoing work in downtown Bloomington -- might be coming.

For county by county population projections through the year 2040, visit www.stats.indiana.edu/pop_proj/.