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Population ageing faster than thought

By Tim Colebach, The Age

September 3, 2003

Australia in 2051 is likely to have a million more people than previously thought - but most of the extras will be people over 65 years old, the Bureau of Statistics has projected.

In a dramatic revision of the nation's official population projections, the bureau's central projection estimates that by 2051, there will be more than five times as many Australians aged 85 and over than there are now.

From 290,000 now, the number of those over 85 will inflate to almost 1.6 million, assuming the inexorable growth in human longevity rolls on.

In June 2002 they represented 1.4 per cent of the population and this is expected to increase to between 6 per cent and 9 per cent of the population in 2051.

The ABS said the over-85 group would experience the highest growth rates of all.

"The ageing population is the inevitable result of sustained low fertility combined with increasing life expectancy at birth," the ABS said.

By then one in three Australians will be 60 and over, twice the proportion in Australia today, the bureau estimates. Together they will make up more than 80 per cent of the nation's population growth in the next 50 years, growing from 3.4 million to 8.8 million.

The bureau's new projections incorporate the recent demographic trends in a range of projections based on different assumptions on fertility levels, net immigration, interstate migration, and the pace at which longevity continues to rise.

Its estimate assumes that fertility falls from 1.725 children per woman now to 1.6 over the next 50 years, that net immigration averages 100,000 a year, and that human lifespans continue growing, but at a slower pace.

On those assumptions, the bureau projects that Australia will have 26.4 million people in 2051, compared with just under 20 million now. The population would then stabilise at about that level, but growing increasingly elderly.

But if fertility rates rose slightly to 1.8 children per woman, net immigration averaged 125,000 a year, and lifespans continued growing at the rate they were now, then Australia's population would climb to 31.4 million by 2051, and 37.7 million by 2101 - 4.1 million of them over 85.

Queensland will replace Victoria as the second most populous state some time over the next 50 years, while NSW will retain its mantle as biggest state in terms of population, according to the projections.

The populations in all states and territories will grow by 2051 except for Tasmania and South Australia, where their population will peak in 2012 and 2027 respectively, the ABS predicts.

Hand in hand with an ageing population, the proportion of working-age Australians is expected to drop substantially.

The total number of Australians aged between 15 and 64 is expected to grow from 13.2 million in 2002 to between 13.4 million and 17.7 million in 2051.

But as a proportion of the total population, the number of people in this working-age bracket will fall from 67 per cent in 2002 to between 57 per cent and 59 per cent by 2051.

Australia's total resident population is expected to grow from 19.7 million in June 2002 to between 23 million and 31.4 million in 2051, while by 2101 it could have nearly doubled to 37.7 million.