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Argentina's Contagion

 

By: Unknown Author
 The New York Time, June 30, 2002

 

 

Argentina's economic collapse six months ago permitted the Bush administration to traffic in a couple of myths. The first was that unlike countries like Mexico or Russia, Argentina could become bankrupt without causing any impact beyond its borders. The second was that the United States could stay on the sidelines indefinitely without damaging its interests in the region. It figured that it would dispense a little tough-minded neglect that would not only do the Argentines a bit of good but would also serve as a lesson to others seeking an instant bailout. It is time to expose both notions for what they are — false and dangerous — and for the administration to do more to help solve Argentina's crisis. Otherwise, the ongoing implosion of Argentina, Latin America's third-largest economy, threatens to undermine political and economic stability throughout the region.

Like other emerging markets that have endured their own financial crises in recent years, Argentina is frantically negotiating with the International Monetary Fund for a reprieve that might help it get its house in order. Its economy minister, Roberto Lavagna, was in Washington last week to meet with I.M.F. officials and Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill and make his case for why Argentina deserves new credits that would allow it to roll over its debt obligations for the next two years.

Mr. Lavagna faces an undeservedly uphill battle. The Bush administration has been far too passive, making little effort to exhort the I.M.F. to reach a deal with Buenos Aires.

President Eduardo Duhalde's transitional government is the first to admit that Argentina's problems are the result of the country's own mistakes, but it has made a great deal of progress in meeting its creditors' conditions for further aid. It would be a costly mistake for President Bush and his Treasury secretary to believe that they can continue punishing Argentina — setting an example for other profligate nations out there — without any spillover effects or contagion. Financial markets in Brazil, Chile and elsewhere are starting to show signs of weakness attributable in part to Argentina's ongoing agony.

There is also an emerging political contagion — a dangerous backlash against free markets and economic liberalization — spreading throughout Latin America. Coupled with its failure to make progress on any new trade deals, the Bush administration's perceived callousness toward the suffering of Argentina, long the star pupil of American-style capitalism in South America, could help fan this backlash and give it an anti-American flavor. That would be an unfortunate legacy for a president who took office promising to make improved relations with Latin America a high priority.


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