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Willetts attacks pension spending forecast

By Nicholas Timmins

Financial Times; Apr 29, 2003

 Official projections that the UK will continue to spend only about 5 per cent of its gross domestic product on state pensions over the next 50 years are "simply incredible",the Conservatives' pension spokesman warned.

David Willetts said the UK's low projections of spending on state pensions led many analysts to conclude that unlike much of Europe, the UK does not face a "demographic time bomb" over state pension spending.

In many other European countries, public spending on pensions is projected to run at 10 to 15 per cent of GDP. But the UK figure is no longer credible, he said.

"When Margaret Thatcher broke the link between pensions and earnings in the early 1980s that policy was coupled with the encouragement of funded pensions," said Mr Willetts.

"You can only have modest levels of state expenditure on pension benefits if you have healthy and widespread funded pensions.

"The crisis in our funded pensions means millions of people will be retiring on incomes way below the level that workers are earning, and that is simply an unsustainable position.

"Unless we take urgent action to rebuild our funded pension saving there will be enormous, and indeed irresistible, pressure for higher state benefits for pensioners.

"Already the IMF and others have begun to question the credibility of the government's projection that in the long term, state pension spending will be held at roughly where it is now - around 5 per cent of GDP.

"That is much lower than in any other European country and indeed almost any other country in the developed world. It is simply not credible unless we do far more to build up funded pension saving in the private sector."

Raising state pension age - which would help contain the bill - would not help, Mr Willetts said, unless continued work and private pension saving plugged the gap.

"Unless people are able to work on, and we stop wasting the talent we currently lose from people being forced to retire in the fifties or early sixties, the gap will simply have to be plugged by paying out more means-tested or disability benefits, which would really only be additional pension spending in disguise."


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