The future is grey for the English countryside. With an ageing rural population, villages are going to have to depend on pensioner power. 
The face of rural England is going to change rapidly in the next 20 years - but it isn't housing development, the natural landscape or farming that's going to be different. 

It's the people. The age profile of the rural population is going to get older much more quickly than the rest of the country - trebling the number of those aged over 85 and creating swathes of the country where the over-50s are in a majority. 

These figures are being presented at a seminar in York, the Ageing Society as a Driver of Rural Development, which is intended to provoke a debate about the major implications of this demographic shift. 

It will examine what's causing this disproportionate ageing in the population. And it will ask where there is adequate public transport, housing and welfare services. And what can rural areas gain from its growing pool of retired and semi-retired inhabitants? 

Silver foxes 

The research, carried out by Newcastle University's Centre for Rural Economy, shows that in the countryside the population of over-50s is going to increase by 

47% over the next two decades. 

Older people are able to give a helping hand in villages
This is being driven by a pattern of families moving from cities into rural areas, in search of a healthier, safer lifestyle and cheaper housing. 
But when the children of these families reach adulthood, they move back to the cities for work, leaving behind their parents - who then become part of a growing number of rural pensioners. 

Unlike in many European countries which face rural depopulation, in the English countryside there is both a migration of young adults to cities - and an influx of older people. 

This shift in the age structure of rural areas coincides with the underlying ageing of the population, with improved life expectancy and relatively low birth rates, which will see a 30% increase in the over-50s by 2028, across the country as a whole. 

There will be retirement hotspots, such as parts of Norfolk and Dorset, where three-fifths of the population will be middle aged or elderly. 
"There is an inescapable trend here - but the countryside is in the vanguard of a demographic change that in time will affect the rest of the country," says Professor Neil Ward, director of the Centre for Rural Economy. 
Volunteers 

And, as this is going to happen whether we like it or not, he says we should be beginning to look for more positive ways of managing this fundamental social change. 

The lack of public transport in rural areas can isolate the elderly
"The dominant way of looking at this has been to see this as a problem - an increasing burden on the working population. 

"But retirement is now more of a process than an event - and retiring can release time, energy and resources, which can be very positive for communities," he says. 

Healthy and energetic pensioners can be the backbone of voluntary services, he says - which will become more important in terms of serving the needs of an older population. 

Exemplifying this idea of active retirement is 67-year-old Mike Gladstone, who lives with his wife in Lanchester, County Durham. A former civil engineer, he works as a volunteer for a number of village organisations, including setting up a local bus service. 

But this isn't just a case of pensioners helping out. The village now depends on the active engagement of its older population, says Mr Gladstone. 
Old stalwarts 

"It's very noticeable that 30 years ago there would have been many more younger people involved in organisations - now it's retired people," he says. 
2028: AGEING COUNTRYSIDE 5.3m more over-60sThree-fifths of population over-50 in Berwick-upon-Tweed, West Somerset, North Norfolk, East Lindsey, West Dorset and South Lakeland47% increase in over-50sThree times as many over-85sCurrent rural average age, 42, urban average, 36Source: Newcastle University 

Whether it's time pressure on the young, or a lack of a sense of civic duty, he says that it's now the older people who keep the local community services running. 

But this can literally be an uphill battle, as the bus service, which Mr Gladstone helped to set up, is threatened by funding cuts. Without this bus, elderly people would be unable to reach the shops and services of the village, he says. 
And this highlights the practical problems that accompany an ageing rural community. 

With poor public transport, people living in the countryside are "highly car dependent", says Professor Ward. And those too elderly to drive are at risk of becoming isolated and cut off from services. 
Village shops 

A report to be published by the Joseph Rowntree Trust later this week is expected to say that elderly people can benefit from so-called "retirement villages", in which older people can retain their independence, but have easy access to health services and support. 

An ageing population will require extra health services "Policy makers need to focus not only on health and social services but examine all rural services which impact on the lives of older people including leisure, transport, crime and housing," says Age Concern's director general, Gordon Lishman. 

There are also questions about what an ageing population will mean for the character and economy of villages, when pensioners become the dominant majority. 

Professor Ward warns against any stereotypical generalisations. When pensioners are buying pop records and empty-nesters - couples whose children have flown the nest - can have considerable disposable income, it remains to be seen what kind of shops and services the "grey pound" will generate, he says. 
And the seminar will debate issues such as whether rural housing is adequate for an older population, how services could be adapted for a less mobile population - and whether migrant workers could be settled in the countryside to tackle staff shortages. 

Another retired Lanchester resident, 69-year-old Arthur Maughan, who chairs the community association, has no time for hand-wringing over an ageing population. "It's not a problem, just a fact of life," he says. 
Harnessing the energy of older people has meant that the community association can offer education classes, computer facilities and an exercise centre. The latest recruit for the exercise classes is aged 84, he says. 
Pensioners are doing it for themselves.