February 20, 2007

As baby boomers age and become more dependent on government to tend to their needs, economic growth to preserve their investments and buyers for their suburban empty nests, they may to turn to a source few contemplate today: immigrants. Those same immigrants who are now struggling to learn English, go to college and find employment need an assist from some people who have the means to give it: boomers.

This web of connections seems obvious to Dowell Myers, who studies immigration patterns and their consequences as a demographer at the University of Southern California and has written a book on the subject. But it's hardly clear to many of today's voters, who tend to see immigrants not as future caretakers but as a burden.

"It's a cycle of roles," Myers said the other day. People start out in life generally depending on others, mainly for education. As they move into the work force they begin to pay taxes and spend their money buying homes, starting businesses and making other investments. As they mature and build wealth, they are making their maximum financial contribution, paying a higher level of taxes. Finally, they retire, collect Social Security or a pension, use Medicare and maybe sell their home.

"It's not separate people with separate interests," Myers said. "Over our lifecycle, we all change roles."

Very soon, the baby boomers will be on the receiving end. And because birthrates and migration from other states are both falling, immigrants will be the ones paying. We need each other.

Even as California is beginning to come to terms with immigration, the rest of the country seems to be experiencing it anew and reacting just as we once did. As more immigrants have avoided California because of its high cost of living, other states have begun to attract a greater share of newcomers and now they're lashing back.

Myers sees all of this as an unfortunate misunderstanding because, he said, the data show that the latest immigrants do quite well once they settle in. Their children and grandchildren do even better. Furthermore, he thinks immigration is already peaking as a share of the U.S. population, and with Mexico's birth rate plunging, our biggest source of newcomers is drying up.

Myers said native-born citizens tend to see immigrants as frozen in time: forever speaking limited English, working at low-skilled jobs, their children soaking up social services. But in fact, he said, settled immigrants — those here 10 years or more — very quickly begin to develop the characteristics of the native-born.

This is even more true for their children. By the second generation, 80 percent are gaining high school diplomas, nearly 100 percent are proficient in English, more than 80 percent are living above the poverty level and 60 percent will own their own homes, Myers said.

But immigrants and their children are not the only ones changing. The mostly white native population is growing older as well.

Around the beginning of the 20th century, he said, there were about 100 senior citizens for every 1,000 U.S. residents aged 25-64, the typical working age. By midcentury the ratio of seniors in the population had doubled to about 200 per 1,000 and remains there today. But current projections show that this number is about to explode. By 2030, there should be 400 seniors for every 1,000 working age residents.

That's where the immigrants come in. To the extent that they keep coming, and keep moving into the labor force, they will keep the economy growing. They'll also pay taxes, buy homes and do all the things the aging seniors need done.

"We need a lot more middle-class taxpayers, because we're going to have a lot more elderly to support," he said.

And the best way to get more middle-class taxpayers is to educate, train and provide opportunity for the immigrants who are reaching for the lower rungs of the economic ladder.