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The Future: No Lattes, No Movies

by Paula Span, The New York Times


March 14, 2012




Thanks to the Elder Index, I now know that if I were a single adult over age 65 in good but not excellent health, renting a one-bedroom apartment in Essex County, N.J. — where I actually do live, and where in a few years I will most likely be that reasonably healthy old person — I would have to pay $28,200 a year to meet my basic needs.

Very basic. “That doesn’t include any frills,” said Shawn McMahon, research manager at Wider Opportunities for Women, the nonprofit organization that constructed this national database. “No entertainment, no travel, no gifts. No lattes.”

But the tool, available at basiceconomicsecurity.org, does include the costs of housing, transportation, health care (including supplemental insurance), food and transportation — all information taken from government sources.

Housing is the biggest variable. The index provides estimates for renters, homeowners with and without mortgages, individuals and couples, using data from the federal Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Census Bureau. The rest of the numbers come from the federal Department of Agriculture, the Highway Administration, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, along with the private insurer Genworth. The index includes income from all sources but assumes no public help, like food stamps or subsidized housing.


(A separate index on the site measures living costs for working families.)

The costs of even a basic, but secure, life vary greatly by region, of course. I spent some time sighing over how much less I would need if I were to rent that one-bedroom apartment in Austin ($20,748) or in either of the Portlands, one in Cumberland County, Me. ($25,368), the other in Multnomah County, Ore. ($23,400).

But New Jersey, according to a Wider Opportunities analysis, is one of the states with the widest gap between elders’ median income and the cost of that basic-but-secure life. Here, median income is only 72 percent of the cost for a single renter, slightly better for a homeowner who’s paid off her house, much worse for one who hasn’t yet.

The states with the greatest gaps are those with high costs of living or low incomes: Massachusetts, the District of Columbia, New York, Mississippi, Maine, Vermont and Louisiana. In each, the median income is less than 70 percent of the cost of living. And of course, by definition, median means that half the senior population makes less than the adequate amount and is in poverty or in danger of sliding into it.

That, of course, is the reason Wider Opportunities, which lobbies for economic security and for the government programs that help shore it up, went to the trouble of gathering all this county-by-county data. (It worked with the Gerontology Institute at the University of Massachusetts Boston.) In every state, the median income remains insufficient for an older person to live securely and independently, though Arizona, Michigan, Utah, Montana and Alaska come close.

For years, researchers have protested that the official federal poverty level is an outmoded statistic that fails to account for regional differences, varying medical costs and a host of other factors. So in November, the Census Bureau released its eye-opening Supplemental Poverty Measure, an updated and broader assessment that nonetheless is not used for official purposes, like determining program eligibility.

Under the old standard, 9 percent of the over-65 population lives in poverty. The supplemental measure hikes that estimate to nearly 16 percent. Yet the Elder Index shows how many more older adults balance on the brink, even if they’re not officially poor.

Mr. McMahon and his team will continue to use this database to analyze older Americans’ financial situations. Next up: reports on the effects of gender and race. I’ll pass some of these along.

Meanwhile,  I’m looking hard at Saginaw, Mich.


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