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The
elderly population increased eleven fold between 1900 and 1994; the no elderly
increased only threefold.
In this century, the rate of growth of the elderly population (persons 65
years old and over) has greatly exceeded the growth rate of the
population of the country as a whole. The elderly increased by a
factor of 11, from 3 million in 1900 to 33 million in 1994. In
comparison, the total population, as well as the population under 65
years old, tripled. Under the Census Bureau's middle series
projections, the number of persons 65 years old and over would more
than double by the middle of the next century to 80 million. About 1
in 8 Americans were elderly in 1994, but about 1 in 5 would be
elderly by the year 2030.1
The
oldest old (persons 85 years old and over) are a small but rapidly
growing group, comprising just over 1 percent of the American
population in 1994. This population comprised 3.5 million persons in
1994, 28 times larger than in 1900. From 1960 to 1994, this group
increased 274 percent, compared with an increase of 100 percent for
persons 65 years old and over, and an increase of 45 percent for the
total population. Overall, the oldest old are projected to be the
fastest growing part of the elderly population into the next
century.
As
age increases, the sex ratio decreases.
Perhaps no feature of the oldest old is as striking as their sex ratio (the
number of males per 100 females), which was 39 in 1994 (982,000
males and 2.5 million females). The sex ratio in the United States
was 44 for persons 85 to 89 years old, and only 26 for persons 95 to
99 years old. In comparison, the sex ratio was 82 for persons 65 to
69 years old.
Of
the Nation's elderly in 1994, about 29.8 million were White; 2.7
million were Black; 137,000 were American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut;
615,000 were Asian and Pacific Islander; and 1.5 million were of
Hispanic origin.2 We expect the elderly population to
become even more racially and ethnically diverse in the future.
Hispanic elderly would increase from less than 4 percent of the
total elderly population in 1990 to 16 percent by the middle of the
next century. The percent Black of the total elderly population also
would increase during the coming decades. Excluding the Hispanic
population from the race categories, the Black non-Hispanic
proportion of the elderly population by the middle of the next
century would be 10 percent, the White non- Hispanic proportion 67
percent, and the Asian and Pacific Islander proportion 7 percent.
The proportion elderly within each of the four major race groups and the
Hispanic origin population is expected to substantially increase
during the first half of the 21st century. From 1990 to 2050, the
proportion elderly would increase from 13 to 23 percent for Whites;
from 8 to 14 percent for Blacks; from 6 to 13 percent for American
Indians, Eskimos, and Aleuts; from 6 to 15 percent for Asians and
Pacific Islanders; and from 5 to 14 percent for Hispanics.
The
proportion elderly varies among the 50 States and the District of
Columbia.
In 1993, the most populous States were also the ones with the largest number
of elderly. Nine States had more than 1 million elderly: California,
Florida, New York, Pennsylvania, Texas, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan,
and New Jersey. In general, the States with a large number of
elderly differ from those States with a high proportion of their
population in the elderly ages (Florida and Pennsylvania are
exceptions). For example, while California easily has the largest
number of elderly persons (3 million), its proportion elderly (11
percent) ranks 46th among the 50 States and the District of
Columbia.
Of all the States, Florida had by far the highest proportion elderly, almost
19 percent. Other States with high proportions elderly (14 to 16
percent), ranked in descending order, were Pennsylvania, Iowa, Rhode
Island, West Virginia, Arkansas, North Dakota, South Dakota,
Nebraska, Missouri, Connecticut, Kansas, and Massachusetts.
Heart
disease is the leading killer of the elderly.
In 1980, 3 of 4 elderly deaths were due to heart disease, cancer, or stroke.
These three major causes of death still were responsible for 7 of
every 10 elderly deaths in 1991. Among major disease groups, heart
disease is the leading cause of death within the elderly population.
The total number of deaths due to heart disease in 1991 was about
the same as in 1980, at just under 600,000.
The
need for personal assistance with everyday activities increases with
age.
The extent of the need for personal assistance with everyday activities is
an indicator of the need for health and social services. Data for
1990 and 1991 from the Survey of Income and Program Participation
reveal a strong relationship between age and the need for personal
assistance. These data showed that 4.5 million elderly persons
needed assistance with one or more activities of daily living.3
At older ages, the proportion requiring personal assistance ranged
from 9 percent for those 65 to 69 years old, to 50 percent for those
85 years old and over. Within each age category, women were more
likely to need assistance than men. For example, among
noninstitutionalized persons 75 years old and over, 33 percent of
women needed help, compared with 23 percent of men. Elderly Blacks
and Hispanics were more likely than Whites to need assistance (25,
25, and 17 percent respectively).
The
elderly poverty rate has declined since 1970, but wide differences
remain between subgroups.
The Current Population Survey shows that between 1972 and 1992, real median
income (in constant 1992 dollars) increased by 23 percent for
elderly males and 36 percent for elderly females. Nevertheless, wide
disparities in income exist between men and women and among race and
Hispanic-origin groups.
The poverty rate among the elderly declined from 25 percent in 1970 to 13
percent in 1992. However, poverty rates varied considerably among
subgroups of the population. Elderly women were more likely to be
poor (16 percent) than elderly men (9 percent) in 1992. Among
elderly Blacks, 27 percent of men and 38 percent of women were poor.
Among elderly Hispanics, 17 percent of men and 25 percent of women
were poor (not a statistically significant difference).
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1 U.S. Bureau of the Census, Jennifer Cheeseman Day, Population
Projections of the United States, by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic
Origin: 1993 to 2050, Current Population Reports, P25-1104,
U.S. Government Printing Office, 1993.
2
Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any race. These data do not
include the population of Puerto Rico.
3
U.S. Bureau of the Census, John M. McNeil, Americans With
Disabilities: 1991-92, Data From the Survey of Income and
Program Participation, Current Population Reports, Household
Economic Studies, P70-33, U.S. Government Printing Office, 1993.
For Further Information
See: Current
Population Reports, Series P23-190, Sixty-Five Plus in the U.S.,
forthcoming.
Contact: Frank B. Hobbs
Age and Sex Statistics Branch
301-457-2378
Source:
U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division and
Housing and Household Economic Statistics Division
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