SCOTLAND will have half a million more pensioners in 40 years time, according to new population estimates.

And experts believe the growth will blow a hole in the Scottish Executive's flagship policy of free personal care for the elderly.

Demographics expert Dr Robert Wright believes the Executive is going to have to rethink its strategy for caring for the elderly, claiming that it will not be able to pay for free care in the long term. 

The government is spending £600million over next two years on the policy.

However a Scottish Executive spokesman denied there would have to be a change. He said: "We will maintain our commitment to free personal and nursing care for the elderly.

"The care development group recognised its cost would be affected by an increase in demand. We are monitoring this closely."

The latest projections by the government's actuaries department, for 2042, show a country with an increasingly ageing population.

Life expectancy is increasing, but the working age population and the population in general is expected to continue to fall.

The number of over-65s is expected to increase from around 800,000 now, to 1.3 million in 38 years' time and the number of those aged over 85, the group most in need of care, will rise from just under 100,000 to more than 250,000.