TOKYO — Japan’s population of 128 million will shrink by
one-third and seniors will account for 40 percent of people by 2060,
placing a greater burden on a smaller working-age population to support
the social security and tax systems.
The grim estimate of how rapid aging will shrink Japan’s population was
released Monday by the Health and Welfare Ministry.
In year 2060, Japan will have 87 million people. The
number of people 65 or older will nearly double to 40 percent, while
the national work force of people between ages 15 and 65 will shrink to
about half of the total population, according to the estimate, made by
the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research.
The total fertility rate, or the expected number of children born per
woman during lifetime, in 2060 is estimated at 1.35, down from 1.39 in
2010 — well below more than 2 needed to keep the country’s population
from declining. But the average Japanese will continue to live longer.
The average life expectancy for 2060 is projected at 90.93 for women,
up from 86.39 in 2010, and 84.19 years for men, up from 79.64 years.
Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda has pledged to push for social security
and tax reforms this year. A bill he promised to submit by the end of
March would raise the 5 percent sales tax in two stages to 8 percent in
2014 and 10 percent by 2015, although opposition lawmakers and the
public pose challenges to its approval.
The institute says Japan has been the world’s fastest aging country,
and with its birthrate among the lowest, its population decline would
be among the deepest globally in coming decades.
Experts say that Japan’s population will keep losing 1 million every
year in coming decades and the country urgently needs to overhaul its
social security and tax system to reflect the demographic shift.
“Pension programs, employment and labor policy and social security
system in this country is not designed to reflect such rapidly
progressing population decline or aging,” Noriko Tsuya, a demography
expert at Keio University, said on public broadcaster NHK. “The
government needs to urgently revise the system and implement new
measures based on the estimate.”