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New puzzle
for older Chinese By
Benjamin Robertson in
With
money in her pocket, life is all about now - but recent government
research might give her cause for thought. Statistics
vary but UN figures show over 65-year-olds making up 23% of the total
population by 2050, as opposed to 7% in 2000. Falling
fertility rates
‘‘There
are several reasons for this happening,’’ explains Siri Tellier, UN
Population Fund representative in Tellier
is quick to point out that the one-child policy is a misnomer – actual
rates vary from one to four children depending on whether you live in
rural or urban areas, whether you are from a minority group and whether
your first child was either female or handicapped at birth. The primary
reason for the country's ageing population, says Tellier, is falling
fertility levels. ‘‘It
is difficult to know what would happen if the (one-child) policy were to
be adjusted. These days people clearly want fewer children than they did a
few decades ago,’’ she says. In
1950, the average rate was six children per family, now it is 1.8. In
the cities, trends are mirroring the West with both men and women
preferring to work first and marry later. Selective
abortions Further
discrepancies exist in relation to the male/female ratio, an issue that
was publicly raised by the government in early September. Their estimates
put the current birth ratio as being 116.9 boys to 100 girls. Whether
the much-hinted at question of selective abortions is to blame is unclear
but a traditional preference for male offspring appears to be having an
effect. By 2010, there will be 42 million more males than females. Whereas
in the West large-scale immigration is seen as a practical answer to
balance an ageing population, the development levels and sheer scale of ‘‘It
is worrying for many people, particularly in the countryside. They worry
about whether their children can support them, especially with medical
costs,’’ says Professor Du Deng, deputy director of the People’s
University Population Research Institute. A
demographic bonus ‘‘There
is nothing inherently wrong with having an old population … it is only
bad if you don’t prepare,’’ says Tellier. The
projection is that by 2050, For
those that face the so-called A
revamp of the pension system will also be needed to deal with the large
number of unmarried men who will most likely never have children. Either a
state-run, or more likely, market-based system will still need
contributions from the labour force, whose numbers will have decreased in
relation to those retired. Greater women's
role Answers
being considered include raising the retirement ages (currently women
retire at 55 compared to 60 for men), encouraging greater involvement of
women in the labour force and reassessing the length of study time
children and students undertake. For
Shirley’s companion, though, the situation is clear. ‘‘Save
for retirement? People today are either too busy out enjoying themselves
or too busy finding food for tomorrow’s lunch to worry about what will
happen in 40 years.’’
Copyright
© 2002 Global Action on Aging |