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Estonia's youth ready to jump to EU while elderly stay cautious

EU Business, September 10, 2003

While Estonia's youth largely see the European Union as a land of promise ahead of Sunday's referendum on joining, the elderly are more cautious, seeing perhaps a better future for their children in the bloc but little benefit for themselves.

"There is no rise in pensions in sight, but the prices are going up even without the EU," 68-year-old Hilja Kukk, director of the Estonian Pensioners Union told AFP.

"Even our government admits that many prices will skyrocket in the EU, so I can't imagine how the pensioners will be able to manage."

Kukk's organisation demanded an increase in pensions before Sunday's referendum, brandishing the threat of a massive No from the elderly, who have borne the brunt of the painful transformation to capitalism since the Baltic republic restored independence from the Soviet Union in 1991 .

"The government just sneezed at our appeal," Kukk fumed, speaking four days before the crucial vote, the outcome of which polls show to be far from certain.

"We are not against the EU," she says. "It's just that Estonia is not ready yet: with no social policy of our own, the EU can't help us in any way."

Results from three recent polls put support for joining the EU next May at between 52 and 69 percent in this country of 1.4 million people.

The No vote on Sunday seems likely to come from those who have been left behind during Estonia's swift march towards a market economy.

Seventeen-year-old Eric Kachkovsky said he had discovered during a bicycle tour of southern Estonia over the summer that government failures to address social concerns were "pushing people to say No".

"People in the villages said the pensions are puny, the local shops are being closed down, so why should they say Yes to the EU," Kachovsky told AFP during a youth EU forum in Tallinn.

"It's the mistakes of our own government that could have a negative effect on the outcome of the referendum," he added.

Eric said he, however, would vote a firm Yes, and he thought other young people would do the same.

"Our economy has much greater chances in the EU, and culturally, this is where we belong," he argued. "My friends think the same."

The Yes and No camps may not simply split along an age line however. "I know families where Mother is for, Father is against, the son is for and the daughter is against," says Eve Rohtla, editor of the regional newspaper Sakala.

"It's not so dramatic as to ruin families, but it really depends on each person how they view EU membership."

Political scientist Anu Toots says it would be too simplified to believe the EU referendum would divide the generations in Estonia.

"The EU has a much stronger social element than the free-market Estonia," she told AFP. "And in the EU, unemployment among the young is an acute issue. So the winners and losers are not so clear from Estonia's accession."

However Toots says the key argument touted by the pro-EU camp about open borders is already working for the young.

"Students are already now actively using the possibilites to study and travel abroad," she said. "Most often, the obstacle is lack of money."

But in case of a win for the No camp, the young could vote a second time - "with their feet", Toots says.

"They may want to protest against the No vote by leaving the country."

A mock national poll taken in several Estonian schools this week showed that 65 percent of students in senior forms were in favour of the EU while 33 percent were against.

Hilja Kukk of the Pensioners Union says it is up to Estonia itself to close the gaps between the haves and the have-nots.

"If the government cared more, people would be more united on the EU," she says.


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