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While
Estonia's youth largely see the European Union as a land of promise ahead
of Sunday's referendum on joining, the elderly are more cautious, seeing
perhaps a better future for their children in the bloc but little benefit
for themselves. "There
is no rise in pensions in sight, but the prices are going up even without
the EU," 68-year-old Hilja Kukk, director of the Estonian Pensioners
Union told AFP. "Even
our government admits that many prices will skyrocket in the EU, so I
can't imagine how the pensioners will be able to manage." Kukk's
organisation demanded an increase in pensions before Sunday's referendum,
brandishing the threat of a massive No from the elderly, who have borne
the brunt of the painful transformation to capitalism since the Baltic
republic restored independence from the Soviet Union in 1991 . "The
government just sneezed at our appeal," Kukk fumed, speaking four
days before the crucial vote, the outcome of which polls show to be far
from certain. "We
are not against the EU," she says. "It's just that Estonia is
not ready yet: with no social policy of our own, the EU can't help us in
any way." Results
from three recent polls put support for joining the EU next May at between
52 and 69 percent in this country of 1.4 million people. The
No vote on Sunday seems likely to come from those who have been left
behind during Estonia's swift march towards a market economy. Seventeen-year-old
Eric Kachkovsky said he had discovered during a bicycle tour of southern
Estonia over the summer that government failures to address social
concerns were "pushing people to say No". "People
in the villages said the pensions are puny, the local shops are being
closed down, so why should they say Yes to the EU," Kachovsky told
AFP during a youth EU forum in Tallinn. "It's
the mistakes of our own government that could have a negative effect on
the outcome of the referendum," he added. Eric
said he, however, would vote a firm Yes, and he thought other young people
would do the same. "Our
economy has much greater chances in the EU, and culturally, this is where
we belong," he argued. "My friends think the same." The
Yes and No camps may not simply split along an age line however. "I
know families where Mother is for, Father is against, the son is for and
the daughter is against," says Eve Rohtla, editor of the regional
newspaper Sakala. "It's
not so dramatic as to ruin families, but it really depends on each person
how they view EU membership." Political
scientist Anu Toots says it would be too simplified to believe the EU
referendum would divide the generations in Estonia. "The
EU has a much stronger social element than the free-market Estonia,"
she told AFP. "And in the EU, unemployment among the young is an
acute issue. So the winners and losers are not so clear from Estonia's
accession." However
Toots says the key argument touted by the pro-EU camp about open borders
is already working for the young. "Students
are already now actively using the possibilites to study and travel
abroad," she said. "Most often, the obstacle is lack of
money." But
in case of a win for the No camp, the young could vote a second time -
"with their feet", Toots says. "They
may want to protest against the No vote by leaving the country." A
mock national poll taken in several Estonian schools this week showed that
65 percent of students in senior forms were in favour of the EU while 33
percent were against. Hilja
Kukk of the Pensioners Union says it is up to Estonia itself to close the
gaps between the haves and the have-nots.
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© 2002 Global Action on Aging |