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No way out: A future of fewer workers and more retirees looks grim.

By Motohisa Furukawa, Minshuto Diet member

The Asahi Shimbun, September 9, 2003

`The generational struggle is even going on among Diet members.'

It may not be a glamorous matchup-Finance Ministry versus welfare ministry-but it is certainly one that will help determine whether Japan ages gracefully or tumbles into precipitous decline. Add vote-wary politicians and grousing senior citizens at ringside, and you can see how the debate could develop into a donnybrook.

The fireworks began with a recent comment by Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa.

``An elderly couple receiving their public pension should together get about 170,000 yen a month,'' reckoned Shiokawa.

As the caretaker of the national bankbook, the finance minister is ready to wield the ax. In early April, he suggested that pensions be cut from the standard 59 percent of the after-tax income current workers earn to 40 percent.

During preparations for the fiscal 2004 budget, a ministry panel had advised Shiokawa that current pension payments should get the chop. Members of the private-sector panel argued the burden of contributing to the pension system was hurting companies' business.

Naturally, welfare minister Chikara Sakaguchi could not stand by while the Finance Ministry threatened to drastically slash the program under his management. He told his subordinates to draw up a counterattack.

On Friday, Sakaguchi revealed the outlines of his proposal for pension reform. The main provisions were to increase the combined pension premium payments shared by the employee and company from the present level of 13.58 percent of the employee's yearly salary to 20 percent.

At the same time, the pension payments would be kept at between 50 percent and the mid-50th percentile range of the average after-tax yearly pay of current workers.

Sakaguchi's proposal along with the one released on Thursday by a welfare ministry advisory panel will form the base for the government proposal to be put together by the end of the year.

That's when the government will release its final plan for the reform of the pension program, slated to start in the new year.

The government faces a treacherous task. Not only will it have to bridge the yawning gap in benefits between people now receiving pensions and those paying into the system. It will also have to lay out the principles and strategies that will guide the pension program in an aged society-in short, a comprehensive blueprint.

So far there has been more partisan jousting than careful planning. What should be a full-scale national debate has been reduced to ministry squabbling over how much to cut pension payouts.

The welfare ministry is partly to blame for the ruckus. Critics say the ministry has yet to accept the reality of a falling birthrate and the effect it has on public pensions.

In December, ministry officials tabled a radical pension policy that would automatically trim payouts when premium revenues fall. But the ministry stubbornly adhered to its pledge not to let benefits fall below half of what current workers are earning. As a result, pensioners and workers were made to share the burden of increased pension costs under the ministry's proposal.

Opponents say that solution ignores the fact that, with the birthrate falling and unlikely to recover soon, future generations face increasingly smaller pension benefits. That makes the proposed system doubly cruel to those now working.

Kazuhiko Nishizawa of the Japan Research Institute Ltd. says political parties have totake the initiative in the pension reform debate.

``The Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry is trying to push through reforms that would be grossly harmful to younger generations,'' Nishizawa said. ``Rather than leave everything to bureaucrats, the parties should propose reform plans backed by real figures.''

Unfortunately, none of the parties have answered that call to arms.

Executives of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party have told Finance Ministry officials the party cannot support a sharp cut in pension payouts. One LDP executive remarked, ``Grandfathers and grandmothers are the only people who visit our offices in our constituencies.''

At a meeting July 12 in Osaka, the elderly were represented by Seiichi Mori, president of the Osaka chapter of the National Federation of Employees' Pensioners' Associations.

``The pension amount was reduced this year because it was pegged to deflation,'' Mori said. ``I hope pension payments are never reduced again.''

Many of the senior citizens in the audience of 1,200 broke out into applause.

Mori's federation has asked prefectural chapters to send representatives to local meetings held by the welfare ministry. About 200 members of the Osaka chapter showed up at the July 12 meeting.

As the chairman of a toy manufacturer, Mori knows better than most about the dire effects of the sinking birthrate.

``We can't ask those currently working to bear an unfair burden,'' said Mori. ``But if pensions are slashed, consumption by senior citizens will decline and damage the economy.''

Some members of the Osaka chapter have openly criticized Shiokawa, whose constituency is in Osaka, and vowed not to vote for the finance minister in the n ext election.

While the elderly may not have the political influence of their counterparts in the West, their clout is growing.

Since 1990, the ratio of voters over 60 has risen from one-quarter to a third. Meanwhile, the average age of prefectural assembly members is 58, that of town and village assembly members 60. These local politicians do the grunt work during national elections. There can be no doubt the voice of senior citizens will be heard.

The Japanese Council of Senior Citizens Welfare Service, a group of retirement home operators, has decided to push its president, Hirohiko Nakamura, as a candidate in next summer's Upper House election.

Meanwhile, lawmakers in the country's biggest opposition party, Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan), are having trouble coming up with policy alternatives to the LDP ahead of upcoming Lower House elections.

Minshuto member Motohisa Furukawa wanted to insert a provision in the party's policy manifesto calling for a review of pension payments to senior citizens with high incomes.

But Furukawa was upbraided by a Minshuto lawmaker in his 60s.

``The pension system should be protected even if that means raising the consumption tax,'' the lawmaker said. ``The generational struggle is even going on among Diet members,'' said Furukawa.


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