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Research
pertains to Hong Kong victims; other results varied Dallas Morning News, May 7, 2003 LONDON – The first major study of SARS
trends suggests that about 20 percent of the people hospitalized with the
disease in Hong Kong are dying from it and that more than half of those
over 60 die. The findings are similar to earlier, cruder
estimates for Hong Kong, one of the areas hardest-hit by SARS. However,
experts warn that the figures do not reflect the chances of an average
person anywhere dying from a bout of SARS once it is contracted. The research, led by Roy Anderson, regarded
as one of the leading infectious-disease experts, is the latest in a
debate about the death rate for SARS. The study for The Lancet, conducted by
scientists at Imperial College in London and the University of Hong Kong
and Hong Kong health authorities, estimated that the death rate could be
as high as 55 percent in people older than of 60. For those younger than
60, the death rate could be as low as 6.8 percent, the study found. "That's sadly still very high for a
respiratory infection," said Mr. Anderson, a professor of infectious
disease epidemiology at London's Imperial College. "In other common
respiratory infections, it is much less than 1 percent in the vulnerable
elderly." The average age of the SARS patients in the
study – those hospitalized in Hong Kong – is 50. Disease experts
generally agree that the virus is much more deadly in people over 60. Nearly 200 of the more than 1,600 people
believed to have SARS in Hong Kong have died. Worldwide, the World Health Organization,
which is leading the effort to stop the spread of SARS, says the death
rate ranges from 6 to 10 percent, depending on location. The U.S. Centers
for Disease Control and Prevention puts the rate at 6.6 percent. The Lancet study,
based on 1,425 SARS cases in Hong Kong up to April 28, also found that the
maximum incubation period – the time it takes between getting infected
and becoming ill – may be as long as 14 days.
Copyright
© 2002 Global Action on Aging
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